91% — Alabama Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Leader: Kyle Sweetser at 91% · Polymarket 91% · 2 contracts · $3K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 09:50:22 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 32% probability represents traders' aggregate assessment that a specific Alabama Democratic Senate candidate will win their party's primary election. This probability reflects uncertainty about candidate positioning, voter preferences, and whether a clear frontrunner has emerged in the state's Democratic primary landscape. The main factors driving this level include the number and strength of competing candidates, recent polling data, and fundraising performance. The primary election date will be the decisive catalyst that resolves this uncertainty, determining which candidate advances to the general election. Between now and the primary, candidate endorsements, debate performances, and ground organization developments will likely shift market expectations.

Key factors:
- Number of competing Democratic candidates and whether a consensus frontrunner has consolidated support
- Recent polling data showing vote share distribution among Democratic primary voters
- Candidate fundraising totals and spending levels relative to competitors
- Whether a major endorsement or organizational backing has shifted in favor of one candidate
- Historical turnout patterns in Alabama Democratic primaries and demographic composition of likely voters

Contracts:
- Alabama Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Kyle Sweetser — 91¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 53%)
- Alabama Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Dakarai Larriett — 8¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 47%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-18T07:20:20.503Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/alabama-democratic-senate-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Alabama%20Democratic%20Senate%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev