31% — Alaska Governor Election Winner
Leader: Tom Begich at 31% · Polymarket 31% · 7 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-11 12:08:50 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 23% probability reflects the current market assessment that a specific candidate will win Alaska's gubernatorial election. The price is derived from aggregated trading across 19 contracts on Polymarket, representing the cumulative judgment of traders with financial stakes in the outcome. Alaska's election dynamics are shaped by voter demographics, incumbency status, and primary results that determine the general election field. The major catalyst ahead is the completion of primary elections and any shifts in candidate viability or name recognition as the campaign enters its final phase. Market pricing will adjust based on polling data, fundraising reports, campaign developments, and historical turnout patterns specific to Alaska's electorate.

Key factors:
- Primary election results and which candidates advance to the general election
- Incumbent advantage or disadvantage relative to challenger candidate(s)
- Polling data in Alaska showing head-to-head matchups and voter preference trends
- Campaign funding and spending levels indicating candidate resources and organizational strength
- Historical Alaska voter turnout patterns and demographic shifts affecting the likely electorate

Contracts:
- Alaska Governor Election Winner  : Tom Begich — 31¢ Polymarket $556 (weight 28%)
- Alaska Governor Election Winner  : Bernadette Wilson — 25¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 0%)
- Alaska Governor Election Winner  : Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins — 16¢ Polymarket $102 (weight 5%)
- Alaska Governor Election Winner  : Bill Walker — 10¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 61%)
- Alaska Governor Election Winner  : Treg Taylor — 8¢ Polymarket $73 (weight 4%)
- Alaska Governor Election Winner  : David Bronson — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Alaska Governor Election Winner  : Click Bishop — 3¢ Polymarket $52 (weight 3%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-11T11:20:50.941Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/alaska-governor-election-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Alaska%20Governor%20Election%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev