50% — Who will win Alaska U.S. House of Representatives election
Leader: Nick Begich III at 50% · Kalshi 50% · 3 contracts · $3 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-14 08:33:32 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets currently assign a 65% probability to Nick Begich III winning Alaska's House seat, with Bill Hill at 21% and Matt Schultz at 8%. This reflects Begich's substantial lead in the race heading into the 2026 cycle. The pricing likely reflects name recognition from his 2022 Senate bid, fundraising performance, and recent polling if available. Key factors driving these probabilities include candidate fundraising totals, endorsement patterns from Alaska Republicans, and any recent polling data. The primary election results, if applicable, or early general election surveys would significantly move these odds. With $0 trading volume in the past 24 hours across all three contracts, the market for this race remains relatively inactive, suggesting limited recent information flow or trader engagement. The actual election outcome in November 2026 will ultimately determine whether these probabilities proved calibrated.

Key factors:
- Candidate fundraising records and cash-on-hand as reported in FEC filings
- Recent public polling showing candidate support levels among Alaska voters
- Primary election results if they occur before general election
- Endorsements from Alaska Republican leadership and national figures
- Voter registration trends and turnout patterns in Alaska's House districts

Contracts:
- Who will win Alaska U.S. House of Representatives election?: Nick Begich III — 50¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 100%)
- Who will win Alaska U.S. House of Representatives election?: Bill Hill — 38¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win Alaska U.S. House of Representatives election?: Matt Schultz — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-14T08:20:51.479Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "50% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/alaskahouse
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20Alaska%20U.S.%20House%20of%20Representatives%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev