35% — Will Noah Kahan have above 150000 Album Equivalent Units on Luminate during April 24, 2026 - April 30, 2026 Kalshi 35% · 13 contracts · $27K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-24 05:51:03 UTC Why this matters: This contract predicts whether Noah Kahan will achieve above 150,000 Album Equivalent Units (AEUs) during the final week of April 2026. The 44% probability reflects moderate uncertainty about whether the artist will reach this threshold during that specific tracking period. Noah Kahan's streaming performance and release schedule are the primary drivers of this prediction. His recent album "Stick Season" performed well commercially, but maintaining a 150K AEU weekly floor during a non-peak release window would be substantial. The contract resolves when Luminate publishes official chart data for the April 24-30 tracking week, which typically occurs in early May. Key variables include whether Kahan releases new music before or during that week, the overall streaming momentum of his catalog, and competitive pressure from other major releases during that period. Key factors: - Noah Kahan's highest-charting weeks in 2024-2025 typically ranged between 80K-120K AEUs, making 150K represent a significant performance level for a non-release week - Whether Kahan schedules a new single or album drop on or before April 24, 2026, which would substantially boost that week's metrics - Competitive landscape during April 24-30, 2026, including simultaneous major releases from other artists that could fragment streaming share - Historical seasonality patterns for his catalog streaming in late April and whether catalog streams sustain during slower release periods - Current trajectory of his streaming platform momentum as of July 2026 relative to the April tracking week being predicted Contracts: - Will Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams have above 130000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 130K — 4¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 18%) - Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above 100000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week?: Above 100K — 20¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 14%) - Will SET IN STONE by Rick Ross have above 20000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 20K — 5¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 12%) - Will Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams have above 80000 Pure Album Sales during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 80K — 4¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 12%) - Will Oh yeah? by Steve Lacey have above 35000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 35K — 15¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 9%) - Will Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams have above 75000 Pure Album Sales during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 75K — 17¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 8%) - Will Oh yeah? by Steve Lacey have above 30000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 30K — 97¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 6%) - Will Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams have above 125000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 125K — 14¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 5%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-24T05:20:51.701Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/albumequiv Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Noah%20Kahan%20have%20above%20150000%20Album%20Equivalent%20Units%20on%20Luminate%20during%20April%2024%2C%202026%20-%20April%2030%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev