77% — Will Noah Kahan have above 150000 Album Equivalent Units on Luminate during April 24, 2026 - April 30, 2026 Leader: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 20000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week?: Above 20K at 77% · Kalshi 77% · 17 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-24 01:37:42 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 17 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract predicts whether Noah Kahan will achieve above 150,000 Album Equivalent Units (AEUs) during the final week of April 2026. The 44% probability reflects moderate uncertainty about whether the artist will reach this threshold during that specific tracking period. Noah Kahan's streaming performance and release schedule are the primary drivers of this prediction. His recent album "Stick Season" performed well commercially, but maintaining a 150K AEU weekly floor during a non-peak release window would be substantial. The contract resolves when Luminate publishes official chart data for the April 24-30 tracking week, which typically occurs in early May. Key variables include whether Kahan releases new music before or during that week, the overall streaming momentum of his catalog, and competitive pressure from other major releases during that period. Key factors: - Noah Kahan's highest-charting weeks in 2024-2025 typically ranged between 80K-120K AEUs, making 150K represent a significant performance level for a non-release week - Whether Kahan schedules a new single or album drop on or before April 24, 2026, which would substantially boost that week's metrics - Competitive landscape during April 24-30, 2026, including simultaneous major releases from other artists that could fragment streaming share - Historical seasonality patterns for his catalog streaming in late April and whether catalog streams sustain during slower release periods - Current trajectory of his streaming platform momentum as of July 2026 relative to the April tracking week being predicted Contracts: - Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 20000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week?: Above 20K — 77¢ Kalshi $123 (weight 3%) - Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week?: Above 40K — 77¢ Kalshi $117 (weight 3%) - Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 60000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week?: Above 60K — 58¢ Kalshi $630 (weight 17%) - Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 80000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week?: Above 80K — 57¢ Kalshi $221 (weight 6%) - Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 100000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week?: Above 100K — 42¢ Kalshi $237 (weight 6%) - Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 120000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week?: Above 120K — 37¢ Kalshi $324 (weight 9%) - Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 180000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week?: Above 180K — 28¢ Kalshi $136 (weight 4%) - Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 140000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week?: Above 140K — 26¢ Kalshi $338 (weight 9%) - ... and 9 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-24T01:20:50.470Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "77% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/albumequiv Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Noah%20Kahan%20have%20above%20150000%20Album%20Equivalent%20Units%20on%20Luminate%20during%20April%2024%2C%202026%20-%20April%2030%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev