6% — How long will Drake's album titled 'Iceman' be
Leader: At least 50 minutes at 6% · Kalshi 6% · 7 contracts · $477 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 12:59:59 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market reflects trader expectations that Ariana Grande's album 'Petal' will exceed 25 minutes in length, with an 88% probability assigned to that outcome. The high confidence likely stems from Grande's typical album structures—her recent releases have consistently run 25+ minutes—and any available advance information about track counts or runtime. The primary factors that could shift this probability are official track listings, confirmed song durations, or pre-release promotional details that reveal the final album composition. Resolution will occur upon the album's release, when actual runtime becomes verifiable. The declining probabilities for longer thresholds (87% for 30 minutes, 76% for 35 minutes) suggest traders expect a moderately-sized release rather than an extended project, though substantial uncertainty remains about total length.

Key factors:
- Grande's past three albums (excluding deluxe editions) ranged from 30–45 minutes, providing a historical baseline for trader expectations
- Number of confirmed tracks on 'Petal' and their typical lengths relative to her previous work would directly inform runtime estimates
- Any official announcement of tracklist or song durations from the label or artist would resolve much current uncertainty
- The gap between the 88% and 43% probabilities (25 vs. 40 minutes) indicates traders expect the album near 30–32 minutes rather than substantially longer
- Release date confirmation and any pre-release snippets or radio singles would clarify final album structure and total length

Contracts:
- How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least 50 minutes — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least 40 minutes — 5¢ Kalshi $343 (weight 72%)
- How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least 60 minutes — 5¢ Kalshi $80 (weight 17%)
- How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least 55 minutes — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least 70 minutes — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least 65 minutes — 4¢ Kalshi $49 (weight 10%)
- How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least 45 minutes — 3¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 1%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-01T14:20:52.057Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/albumlength
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20long%20will%20Drake's%20album%20titled%20'Iceman'%20be
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev