88% — How long will Drake's album titled 'Iceman' be
Leader: At least 25 minutes at 88% · Kalshi 88% · 6 contracts · $20 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:48 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 60% probability reflects market consensus that Drake's upcoming album 'Iceman' will meet a specific length threshold, though the exact threshold varies across contracts. The probability distribution shows traders view the album as likely to exceed 65 minutes (69¢) but remain uncertain whether it reaches 100 minutes (18¢), suggesting expected length around 70-85 minutes. Album length depends on Drake's creative decisions and studio output, influenced by factors like the number of tracks, average song duration, and any deluxe or extended editions. Resolution occurs when the album officially releases and streaming platforms or official sources confirm its total runtime. Market activity of $90-120 daily volume on the primary contracts indicates moderate trader interest in this metric.

Key factors:
- Official release date and announced tracklist will establish exact runtime; delays or format changes would shift probability
- Drake's typical album length pattern—recent albums range 45-90 minutes—anchors trader expectations around this historical baseline
- Presence or absence of bonus tracks, skits, or interludes significantly affects total duration and represents a key unknown variable
- Preliminary leaks or studio session reports could alter probability if they indicate unexpectedly long or short project length
- Contract pricing spread (18¢ to 95¢ across thresholds) reflects genuine disagreement about whether album will exceed 100 minutes versus staying under 75 minutes

Contracts:
- How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least 25 minutes — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least 30 minutes — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least 35 minutes — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least 40 minutes — 42¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least 45 minutes — 15¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 75%)
- How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least 65 minutes — 7¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 25%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.901Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "88% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/albumlength
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20long%20will%20Drake's%20album%20titled%20'Iceman'%20be
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev