65% — Will Miley Cyrus release a new album before Feb 1, 2027 Leader: Before Mar 1, 2027 at 65% · Kalshi 65% · 7 contracts · $416 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 06:03:13 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects market expectations that Miley Cyrus will release a new album between now and March 1, 2027, with the leading contract priced at 68% for a March 1 deadline versus 56% for February 1. The pricing gap between these two dates suggests traders view a March release as meaningfully more likely than a February one, with most of the expected probability mass falling in that two-week window. The current assessment is driven by Cyrus's historical release patterns and any public announcements or recording activity. A major upcoming catalyst would be any official album announcement, release date confirmation, or indication from her label or social media. Without concrete signals, traders are essentially pricing in base-rate expectations for an artist of her profile during this timeframe. Key factors: - Miley Cyrus has not made a public album announcement as of July 2026; traders are pricing in an unconfirmed release - The 12-percentage-point gap between the February and March deadlines indicates higher confidence in post-Feb 1 release than immediate release - Her last album 'Endless Summer Vacation' was released in March 2023; release-to-release intervals inform baseline expectations - Trading volume is highest on the Feb 1 contract ($350 24h volume) relative to others, suggesting it is the most actively disputed date - An early September deadline carries only 3% probability, making a 2026 release before fall extremely unlikely in market pricing Contracts: - Will Miley Cyrus release a new album before Mar 1, 2027?: Before Mar 1, 2027 — 65¢ Kalshi $166 (weight 40%) - Will Miley Cyrus release a new album before Feb 1, 2027?: Before Feb 1, 2027 — 62¢ Kalshi $250 (weight 60%) - Will Miley Cyrus release a new album before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 52¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Miley Cyrus release a new album before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 36¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Miley Cyrus release a new album before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Miley Cyrus release a new album before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Miley Cyrus release a new album before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T05:20:50.709Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "65% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/albumreleasedate-newmil Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Miley%20Cyrus%20release%20a%20new%20album%20before%20Feb%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev