24% — Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before July 2026 Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029 at 24% · Kalshi 24% · 5 contracts · $54K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 08:12:52 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets are pricing a 33% probability that the U.S. government will officially confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life before January 20, 2029. The relatively low odds reflect the absence of credible public evidence and the high bar for official government confirmation, despite increased congressional scrutiny of UAP (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena) reports and declassification efforts. The near-term contracts show traders assign substantially lower probabilities to confirmation in 2026 and 2027 (8% and 17% respectively), suggesting market skepticism about imminent disclosure. Key catalysts include ongoing congressional hearings on UAP, the status of classified materials reviewed by government task forces, and any formal statements from executive or legislative branches. The current probability reflects genuine uncertainty about both the existence of extraterrestrial life and the U.S. government's willingness or ability to make an official confirmation if evidence exists. Key factors: - Congressional UAP hearings and declassification timelines directly influence expectations; the rate and substance of government disclosures through 2028 will be observable - The probability declines substantially for nearer-term resolution (8¢ for 2026 vs 33¢ for pre-Jan 2029), indicating traders expect any confirmation would require years of investigation and institutional coordination - No credible physical evidence of extraterrestrial life has been publicly disclosed; confirmation would require either direct evidence or unprecedented official statement - The question requires U.S. government confirmation specifically, not media reports or scientific consensus, raising the evidentiary and political bar significantly - Trading volume concentrates on the 2029 deadline ($10,820 24h vol), while 2026 resolution receives minimal volume ($7,486), suggesting low market confidence in near-term resolution Contracts: - Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2029?: Before Jan 20, 2029 — 24¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 6%) - Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2028?: Before 2028 — 16¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 7%) - Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: Before 2027 — 7¢ Kalshi $45K (weight 84%) - Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Dec 1, 2026?: Before December — 4¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 3%) - Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Nov 1, 2026?: Before November — 3¢ Kalshi $147 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:52.214Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aliens Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20U.S.%20confirm%20that%20aliens%20exist%20before%20July%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev