35% — Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before July 2026
Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029 at 35% · Kalshi 35% · 4 contracts · $93K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:03 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2029?: Before Jan 20, 2029 — 35¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 5%)
- Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2028?: Before 2028 — 26¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 5%)
- Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: Before 2027 — 17¢ Kalshi $45K (weight 48%)
- Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2026?: Before September 2026 — 7¢ Kalshi $39K (weight 42%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:11.906Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aliens
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20U.S.%20confirm%20that%20aliens%20exist%20before%20July%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev