35% — Will the US confirm aliens exist?
Kalshi 35% · 9 contracts · $101 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-23 06:15:48 UTC

Why this matters:
There is currently no official government disclosure or confirmation of extraterrestrial life, and prediction markets assign only a 7% chance to Japan declassifying new UFO-related files in 2026. While interest in space and aerospace sectors remains active, as seen in the gains of the Procure Space ETF (UFO) and the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA), there is no market-implied evidence of an imminent global UFO disclosure event.

Key factors:
- Japan UFO file disclosure probability
- Procure Space ETF (UFO) performance
- Aerospace sector market sentiment
- Lack of official government verification

Contracts:
- Will there be more than 100000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 100,000 — 17¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 99%)
- Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026?: 3 — 25¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 1%)
- Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026?: 2 — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will there be more than 150000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 150,000 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will there be more than 200000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 200,000 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will there be more than 250000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 250,000 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will there be more than 300000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 300,000 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will government spending increase by 1000000000 before 2027?: At least $1 billion — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-23T05:20:49.227Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aliens-confirmed
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20US%20confirm%20aliens%20exist%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev