34% — Will the US confirm aliens exist?
Kalshi 34% · 12 contracts · $15 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 03:36:07 UTC

Why this matters:
Prediction markets currently assign an 80% probability to Donald Trump declassifying new UFO files by August 31, 2026. While the odds of disclosure by mid-August remain significant at 72%, the market indicates lower confidence in a quicker release before the end of July at 33%. Additionally, speculation regarding Japan declassifying new UFO files in 2026 remains very low at just 10%.

Key factors:
- Trump declassification timeline
- August 31 confidence levels
- Geopolitical information disclosure
- Low Japanese disclosure probability

Contracts:
- Will government spending increase by 400000000000 before 2027?: At least $400 billion — 52¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 100%)
- Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026?: 2 — 57¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will there be more than 100000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 100,000 — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will there be more than 150000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 150,000 — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026?: 3 — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 4 in 2026?: 4 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will government spending increase by 500000000000 before 2027?: At least $500 billion — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will there be more than 200000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 200,000 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 4 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T03:20:49.511Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aliens-confirmed
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20US%20confirm%20aliens%20exist%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev