36% — Will the US confirm aliens exist?
Kalshi 36% · 13 contracts · $44 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 09:27:45 UTC

Why this matters:
There is no definitive government confirmation of extraterrestrial life, though prediction markets currently suggest it is highly likely that President Trump will release new UAP/UFO files by August 2026. While contracts betting on a release before early June 2026 are trading at very low odds, the probability significantly increases toward the end of summer, hitting 98% for a release by August 1. However, the market assigns a much lower 34% chance that this release will be accompanied by an executive action specifically concerning UAP declassification by August.

Key factors:
- High market-implied probability for UAP file release by August
- Low current expectation for executive action on UAP declassification
- Near-term uncertainty regarding immediate June disclosures
- Prediction market-implied timeline for government transparency

Contracts:
- Will there be more than 100000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 100,000 — 37¢ Kalshi $44 (weight 100%)
- Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026?: 2 — 59¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will there be more than 150000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 150,000 — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026?: 3 — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 4 in 2026?: 4 — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will government spending increase by 400000000000 before 2027?: At least $400 billion — 63¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will government spending increase by 500000000000 before 2027?: At least $500 billion — 50¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will there be more than 200000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 200,000 — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 5 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T09:20:11.903Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "36% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aliens-confirmed
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20US%20confirm%20aliens%20exist%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev