60% — Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jul 4, 2026
Leader: Before Jul 1, 2027 at 60% · Kalshi 60% · 4 contracts · $42K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-09 23:31:06 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito will announce his retirement before July 4, 2026. The 10-cent price for the near-term window suggests traders view an imminent announcement as unlikely, though the 52-cent price for before January 1, 2027 indicates higher expectations for retirement within the next six months. The probability would increase if Alito signals health concerns, signals retirement intentions, or if external pressure accelerates through additional congressional statements or media developments. The biggest near-term catalyst is whether Alito makes any public statements or retirement announcements in early July, with subsequent quarterly timeframes offering additional resolution points through the end of 2026.

Key factors:
- Current Kalshi contract prices show only 10% likelihood of announcement by July 4, 2026, compared to 52% by January 1, 2027
- Trading volume is highest on the January 2027 deadline ($15,885 in 24h volume), indicating that's where market uncertainty is concentrated
- No public statements from Alito or the Supreme Court indicate imminent retirement plans as of early July 2026
- The probabilities across staggered dates suggest traders expect potential announcement in late 2026 rather than immediate term
- Seasonal timing and typical Supreme Court announcement patterns (often at session end) affect probability distribution across these deadlines

Contracts:
- Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jul 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027 — 60¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%)
- Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 28¢ Kalshi $82 (weight 0%)
- Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 15¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 11%)
- Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026 — 7¢ Kalshi $37K (weight 89%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-09T23:20:50.472Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "60% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/alitoannounceretire
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Samuel%20Alito%20announce%20their%20departure%20as%20Supreme%20Court%20justice%20before%20Jul%204%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev