91% — Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 85% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026
Leader: Above 81% at 91% · Kalshi 91% · 8 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-27 12:14:10 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents traders' assessment that Alaska Air Group will achieve a passenger load factor above 85% when reporting fiscal 2026 results. The extremely low price (3 cents) suggests markets view this outcome as highly unlikely, despite confidence that the airline will exceed 81% load factors. Key drivers include seasonal demand patterns, fuel costs, competition, and Alaska's capacity management during peak travel periods. The resolution hinges on Alaska Air's official fiscal 2026 financial reporting, expected in early 2027, which will disclose actual load factor performance. Current market pricing indicates a sharp drop-off in probability between 81-85% load factors, suggesting traders expect meaningful headwinds at higher thresholds.

Key factors:
- Alaska Air's historical load factors and whether 85%+ has been achieved or approached in prior fiscal years
- Macro airline capacity growth and industry load factor trends for fiscal 2026 relative to demand
- Alaska Air's specific capacity additions or retirements scheduled during fiscal 2026
- Seasonal demand volatility and economic conditions affecting summer and winter travel bookings
- Competitive pricing pressure and market share dynamics in Alaska's core West Coast routes

Contracts:
- Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?: Above 81% — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?: Above 81.5% — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 82% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?: Above 82% — 75¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 82.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?: Above 82.5% — 44¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 83% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?: Above 83% — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 83.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?: Above 83.5% — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 84% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?: Above 84% — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 84.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?: Above 84.5% — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-27T11:21:47.889Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/alka
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Alaska%20Air%20Group%20Inc.%20report%20Above%2085%25%20passenger%20load%20factor%20in%20fiscal%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev