27% — Will Andrew Sneed be the Democratic nominee for AL-05
Kalshi 27% · 3 contracts · $59 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:38 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that Andrew Sneed will win the Democratic primary for Alabama's 5th congressional district. At 27%, the market views him as a competitive but not favored candidate in what appears to be an open or contested race. The primary outcome will depend on factors such as candidate field strength, voter turnout patterns in the Democratic primary electorate, and local name recognition among potential contenders. The Democratic primary election itself—scheduled for the state's primary date—will be the decisive event that resolves this prediction. Prior to that vote, candidate announcements, endorsements from party leaders or established figures, and polling data closer to the election would likely move this probability significantly either direction.

Key factors:
- Candidate field composition: The number and profile of other Democratic candidates running in AL-05 will materially affect Sneed's primary vote share
- Primary election participation rates: Democratic primary turnout in this district relative to historical averages will influence which candidate appeals resonate most
- Sneed's name recognition and donor support: Measurable indicators like campaign fundraising, endorsements, and polling performance against named opponents would validate or challenge the 27% assessment
- Statewide Democratic lean: Overall Democratic performance in Alabama primaries and the district's demographic composition relative to state averages
- Timeline to primary vote: The specific primary election date and remaining time for candidate emergence and campaign development

Contracts:
- Will James Richardson be the Republican nominee for AL-01?: James Richardson — 5¢ Kalshi $59 (weight 100%)
- Will Jerry Carl be the Republican nominee for AL-01?: Jerry Carl — 71¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Joshua McKee be the Republican nominee for AL-01?: Joshua McKee — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.532Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/alprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Andrew%20Sneed%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20AL-05
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev