50% — Will Andrew Sneed be the Democratic nominee for AL-05
Kalshi 50% · 4 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 20:08:12 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that Andrew Sneed becomes the Democratic nominee for Alabama's 5th congressional district. At 26%, the market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty about his path to the nomination, suggesting other candidates or factors are viewed as competitive alternatives. The main drivers of this probability would be Sneed's fundraising performance, endorsements from party establishment figures, and polling among likely Democratic primary voters in AL-05. The primary election date would be the key catalyst that resolves this uncertainty, as actual voting results would determine the nominee. Until then, movements in this probability would likely track campaign developments such as candidate entry/exit announcements, major donor commitments, or shifts in local Democratic party dynamics.

Key factors:
- Sneed's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compared to other declared or potential Democratic candidates in AL-05
- Endorsements from Alabama Democratic Party leadership, labor organizations, or established figures within the district
- Published polling data showing Sneed's support level among likely Democratic primary voters in AL-05
- Whether other competitive Democratic candidates announce their candidacy or withdraw from the race
- Voter registration and turnout trends in AL-05 that affect the composition of the Democratic primary electorate

Contracts:
- Will Jerry Carl be the Republican nominee for AL-01?: Jerry Carl — 94¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 87%)
- Will Gary Palmer be the Republican nominee for AL-06?: Gary Palmer — 95¢ Kalshi $180 (weight 13%)
- Will Joshua McKee be the Republican nominee for AL-01?: Joshua McKee — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will James Richardson be the Republican nominee for AL-01?: James Richardson — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-13T01:20:52.420Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "50% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/alprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Andrew%20Sneed%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20AL-05
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev