49% — American Hockey League
Leader: Winner: Chicago Wolves at 49% · Polymarket 49% · 12 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:09:28 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 47% probability reflects traders' assessment of whether the American Hockey League will crown a champion in 2026. The figure sits between a 24% probability on Kalshi and an average of 48% across 19 Polymarket contracts, a significant 24-percentage-point gap suggesting disagreement about league stability or playoff likelihood. The main drivers of this probability are the AHL's operational continuity and whether the 2025-26 season completes its playoff cycle on schedule. The primary uncertainty resolver will be the AHL's playoff outcomes in spring 2026, as early eliminations or scheduling disruptions could alter the narrative. Factors pushing probability higher include normal league operations and historical precedent of successful championships; factors pushing lower would be organizational challenges or unforeseen operational obstacles.

Key factors:
- Kalshi's 24% probability is substantially lower than Polymarket's 48%, indicating exchanges disagree on whether the AHL definitively completes a championship award in 2026
- All top contracts cluster around 46-48 cents on Polymarket, suggesting multiple teams carry similar odds rather than one dominant favorite
- Polymarket contracts show zero 24-hour volume while the Kalshi baseball contract shows $6,073 volume, indicating low market activity and potentially less reliable price discovery for AHL markets
- The 2025-26 AHL season would need to progress through regular season and playoffs without major disruption to resolve positively by 2026 year-end
- The contract structure tracks binary championship occurrence rather than probability of a specific team, making operational continuation the key variable rather than competitive unpredictability

Contracts:
- American Hockey League: Winner: Chicago Wolves — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 8%)
- American Hockey League: Winner: Cleveland Monsters — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 8%)
- American Hockey League: Winner: Colorado Eagles — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 8%)
- American Hockey League: Winner: Henderson Silver Knights — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 8%)
- American Hockey League: Winner: Laval Rocket — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 8%)
- American Hockey League: Winner: Manitoba Moose — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 8%)
- American Hockey League: Winner: Ontario Reign — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 8%)
- American Hockey League: Winner: Springfield Thunderbirds — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 8%)
- ... and 4 more

Cite as: "49% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/american-hockey-league
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=American%20Hockey%20League
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev