95% — Will Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 105 Leader: Above 102 at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 11 contracts · $552 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 16:17:33 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract estimates a 51% probability that Amazon credit card spending will exceed $105 billion in August 2026. The current pricing reflects modest confidence in above-threshold spending, with prices remaining stable across the $102-$106 band, suggesting market uncertainty about the exact outcome. Historical Amazon spending patterns, seasonal consumer behavior in August, and macroeconomic conditions through mid-to-late August will be primary drivers. The resolution depends on official August credit card volume data, typically reported in early September, which will either confirm or refute the current market positioning. Notably, the $0 trading volume across all contracts indicates minimal recent price discovery, suggesting the 51% level may not reflect active consensus but rather stale equilibrium pricing. Key factors: - August 2026 represents the back-to-school and end-of-summer period, a traditionally elevated spending month that could push totals above $105B - Year-over-year Amazon credit card spending growth rates and any announced changes to rewards programs or shopping incentives through August - Macroeconomic conditions including consumer credit availability, inflation, and employment levels as of late August 2026 - Comparison to historical August spending baselines and the established range across the $102-$106 band, where all thresholds show 51% or near-51% probability - The zero 24-hour trading volume suggests no new information has updated market prices; actual data release in early September will be the definitive resolution event Contracts: - Will Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 102 ?: Above 102 — 95¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 4%) - Will Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 103 ?: Above 103 — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 104 ?: Above 104 — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 105 ?: Above 105 — 85¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 1%) - Will Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 106 ?: Above 106 — 69¢ Kalshi $210 (weight 38%) - Will Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 107 ?: Above 107 — 59¢ Kalshi $28 (weight 5%) - Will Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 108 ?: Above 108 — 54¢ Kalshi $34 (weight 6%) - Will Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 109 ?: Above 109 — 45¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 3%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T15:20:49.709Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/amzncc Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Amazon%20Monthly%20Credit%20Card%20Spend%20for%20August%202026%20be%20above%20105 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev