48% — Andalusia Election: PP # of seats?: 53-55
Leader: PP # of seats?: 53-55 at 48% · Polymarket 48% · 5 contracts · $765 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 03:16:58 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 40% probability that Spain's PP (People's Party) will win between 53–55 seats in Andalusia, making it the single most-likely outcome among six bracketed options. The market shows meaningful probability mass spread across adjacent ranges: 56–58 seats trades at 30%, and 59–61 seats at 12%, suggesting traders view a broader PP performance band (53–61 seats) as highly plausible. The current 40% price reflects that while this seat range is favored, substantial uncertainty remains about whether the PP performs slightly better or worse. Key drivers include recent regional polling trends, national political dynamics affecting PP momentum, and turnout patterns that typically influence seat distribution in Spanish regional elections. The outcome will be determined when Andalusia holds its next scheduled regional election; until that date, market prices depend on evolving polls and political news that signal shifting electoral conditions.

Key factors:
- Most recent Andalusian polling shows PP seat projections and their 95% confidence intervals relative to the 53–55 range
- Trading volume on the 53–55 contract ($20 in 24h) is substantially lower than adjacent ranges, indicating less conviction or liquidity than the current price suggests
- Cumulative probability across 53–61 seat ranges (40% + 30% + 12%) represents 82% of the market, implying traders assign very low likelihood to sub-50 or 62+ outcomes
- The timing of Andalusia's next scheduled regional election and any announced snap-election triggers that would move up or delay the vote
- Recent political events or coalition dynamics at national or regional level that could shift voter behavior or seat projections

Contracts:
- Andalusia Election: PP # of seats?: 53-55 — 48¢ Polymarket $19 (weight 2%)
- Andalusia Election: PP # of seats?: 56-58 — 47¢ Polymarket $23 (weight 3%)
- Andalusia Election: PP # of seats?: 59-61 — 13¢ Polymarket $489 (weight 64%)
- Andalusia Election: PP # of seats?: 50-52 — 5¢ Polymarket $232 (weight 30%)
- Andalusia Election: PP # of seats?: <50 — 3¢ Polymarket $2 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-07T07:20:11.816Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/andalusia-election-pp-of-seats
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Andalusia%20Election%3A%20PP%20%23%20of%20seats%3F%3A%2053-55
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev