53% — Andalusia Election: PSOE-A # of seats?: 27-29
Leader: PSOE-A # of seats?: 27-29 at 53% · Polymarket 53% · 5 contracts · $141 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 03:16:57 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents the market's current assessment that Spain's Socialist Party of Andalusia (PSOE-A) will win between 27-29 seats in the upcoming Andalusian regional election. The 53% probability reflects moderate confidence in this outcome, with significant uncertainty remaining. Market participants are weighing regional political dynamics, voter preference trends, and the performance of competing parties—particularly the Popular Party and other regional actors. The outcome depends substantially on regional economic conditions, immigration sentiment, and campaign momentum in the months leading to the election. The election itself will be the definitive catalyst, though pre-election polling releases and any major political developments or scandals could shift expectations before voting occurs. Current pricing indicates this range is viewed as slightly more likely than not, but the 44% probability for the runner-up outcome reflects genuine competitive uncertainty.

Key factors:
- PSOE-A's current polling position relative to the Popular Party (PP-A) and their respective seat projections under Andalusia's electoral system
- Recent voter turnout patterns in Andalusian elections and whether turnout changes would benefit or harm PSOE-A specifically
- The performance and seat-splitting effects of third parties (Ciudadanos, Vox, regional formations) on the distribution of lower-threshold votes
- Economic indicators and regional employment data in Andalusia that could shift voter preferences toward or away from the governing party
- Any significant political scandals, policy announcements, or coalition announcements by major parties in the months before the scheduled election

Contracts:
- Andalusia Election: PSOE-A # of seats?: 27-29 — 53¢ Polymarket $32 (weight 23%)
- Andalusia Election: PSOE-A # of seats?: 24-26 — 44¢ Polymarket $13 (weight 9%)
- Andalusia Election: PSOE-A # of seats?: 21-23 — 12¢ Polymarket $14 (weight 10%)
- Andalusia Election: PSOE-A # of seats?: 30-32 — 9¢ Polymarket $28 (weight 20%)
- Andalusia Election: PSOE-A # of seats?: 33+ — 4¢ Polymarket $53 (weight 38%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-07T07:20:11.816Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "53% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/andalusia-election-psoe-of-seats
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Andalusia%20Election%3A%20PSOE-A%20%23%20of%20seats%3F%3A%2027-29
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev