94% — Anime Awards
Leader: Best Isekai Anime Winner: Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 3 at 94% · Polymarket 94% · 14 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:54 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that a specific anime title or category winner will be selected at upcoming anime awards. The leading contract at 71% suggests high confidence in one particular outcome, likely driven by voting patterns, critical acclaim, or industry momentum from earlier in 2026. The market remains competitive, with a runner-up at 67%, indicating meaningful uncertainty. Key drivers include the timing of award voting windows, which typically occur in spring for annual ceremonies, and relative trading volume concentrated on "My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON" at 43 cents, suggesting this is the favored Anime of the Year candidate. Resolution depends on the official award announcement date—presumably scheduled for late May or June 2026 based on typical ceremony calendars. Traders are pricing in substantial disagreement: the gap between the leader (71%) and runner-up (67%) is narrow, and combined probability across top three outcomes exceeds 100%, reflecting overlapping contract structures in this multi-outcome market.

Key factors:
- My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON commands 43¢ with $1,800 daily volume, significantly outpacing other Anime of the Year candidates by trading activity and price
- The leader (71%) and runner-up (67%) are within 4 percentage points, indicating genuine market disagreement rather than consensus
- Total liquidity appears concentrated in the Anime of the Year category rather than evenly distributed across 20 contracts, suggesting structural imbalance
- Award voting typically closes 4-8 weeks before ceremony dates; the absence of announced winner information as of early May 2026 leaves substantial resolution uncertainty
- Category winners (e.g., Best Anime Song at 31¢) trade at materially lower prices than Anime of the Year frontrunners, suggesting market prioritizes year-end general awards over specific categories

Contracts:
- Anime Awards: Best Isekai Anime Winner: Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 3 — 94¢ Polymarket $32 (weight 3%)
- Anime Awards: Best Anime Song Winner: "IRIS OUT" by Kenshi Yonezu (Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc) — 88¢ Polymarket $45 (weight 4%)
- Anime Awards: Anime of the Year Winner: My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON — 77¢ Polymarket $295 (weight 24%)
- Anime Awards: Best Action Anime Winner: Solo Leveling Season 2 -Arise from the Shadow- — 68¢ Polymarket $8 (weight 1%)
- Anime Awards: Film of the Year Winner: Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle — 65¢ Polymarket $266 (weight 22%)
- Anime Awards: Best Comedy Anime Winner: DAN DA DAN Season 2 — 54¢ Polymarket $15 (weight 1%)
- Anime Awards: Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (English) Winner: Justin Briner as Izuku Midoriya (My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON) — 44¢ Polymarket $45 (weight 4%)
- Anime Awards: Film of the Year Winner: Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc — 39¢ Polymarket $151 (weight 12%)
- ... and 6 more

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/anime-awards
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Anime%20Awards
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev