73% — Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...
Leader: June 30 at 73% · Polymarket 73% · 2 contracts · $470 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 22:18:27 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the aggregated estimate that a magnitude 7.0 or stronger earthquake will occur somewhere on Earth by June 30, 2026. The 70% probability on the June 30 outcome, compared to 17% for May 30, suggests markets expect the event within the next month, though seismic activity cannot be reliably predicted. The current level reflects baseline earthquake frequencies—statistically, 7.0+ magnitude events occur roughly 15 times per year globally. The main drivers are recent tectonic activity patterns, historical seismic clusters in active zones, and standard recurrence intervals for major faults. The resolution will depend on USGS and international seismic monitoring agencies confirming whether a qualifying earthquake occurs before the deadline. Market pricing may shift with significant foreshock activity or changes in geological monitoring data.

Key factors:
- Global earthquake frequency data shows 7.0+ events occur at roughly 15-per-year baseline, implying ~21% probability for a 30-day window under uniform distribution
- The May 30 contract pricing (17¢) versus June 30 (70¢) suggests traders assign meaningful probability to the event occurring within the first 3 days versus the full month
- Recent tectonic data and USGS monitoring would be the primary source for updating estimates; no specific high-risk zone or forecasted event appears to be driving the current level
- The outcome will be determined by official USGS magnitude assessments and timestamp confirmation; borderline magnitude cases (6.9 vs 7.0) could create disputes
- Historical catalogs show clustering patterns in specific zones; an active swarm in high-risk regions (Ring of Fire, subduction zones) would likely push probabilities higher

Contracts:
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?: June 30 — 73¢ Polymarket $80 (weight 17%)
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?: May 30 — 12¢ Polymarket $391 (weight 83%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T21:20:09.994Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "73% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/another-70-or-above-earthquake
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Another%207.0%20or%20above%20earthquake%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev