23% — Will another country conduct military action against Iran by... Kalshi 43% · Polymarket 18% · 11 contracts · $60K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 06:13:47 UTC Cross-venue gap: 25pp (Kalshi higher) Why this matters: This market estimates the likelihood that a country other than the United States conducts military action against Iran by a specified date. At 19%, the probability reflects relatively low near-term risk of foreign military engagement, though not negligible. The assessment hinges on regional tensions, particularly involving Israel and Gulf states, alongside Iran's nuclear program trajectory and rhetoric. Escalation would likely depend on Iranian provocation, a major regional incident, or shifts in diplomatic relations. De-escalation factors include ongoing negotiations, economic pressures on Iran, and international efforts to contain conflict. The resolution depends on observable military strikes, airstrikes, or sustained combat operations meeting specific criteria, with developments in Israeli-Iranian tensions and any Iranian nuclear advances serving as primary indicators of probability shifts. Key factors: - Israeli military capabilities and stated red lines regarding Iranian nuclear facilities remain the most direct catalyst for potential action - Current status and trajectory of Iranian nuclear enrichment levels relative to IAEA monitoring and international agreement compliance - Regional proxy activities by Iran and responses from Gulf state allies or Israel that could trigger direct military engagement - Diplomatic engagement levels between Iran and international stakeholders, including any active negotiations that could reduce conflict likelihood - Public statements and military posturing from Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE regarding Iranian nuclear or military threats Contracts: - US military action against Cuba by...?: December 31 — 39¢ Polymarket $58K (weight 98%) - Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?: Yes — 30¢ Kalshi $574 (weight 1%) - How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?: 10 — 16¢ Polymarket $568 (weight 1%) - Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?: United States — 55¢ Kalshi $87 (weight 0%) - How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?: 8 — 29¢ Polymarket $50 (weight 0%) - Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? — 4¢ Polymarket $29 (weight 0%) - How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?: 9 — 27¢ Polymarket $26 (weight 0%) - Will any country leave NATO by...?: December 31, 2026 — 6¢ Polymarket $26 (weight 0%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:12.104Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/another-country-conduct-military-action-against-iran Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20another%20country%20conduct%20military%20action%20against%20Iran%20by... Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev