90% — Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026
Polymarket 90% · 1 contracts · $22 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 05:22:50 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents whether Anthropic's valuation will exceed OpenAI's valuation at any point during 2026. The 90% likelihood reflects current market expectations that Anthropic will achieve a higher valuation than OpenAI within this calendar year. The main drivers are recent funding rounds and valuation announcements from both companies. Anthropic's December 2024 funding round valued the company at $60 billion, while OpenAI's most recent public valuation discussion occurred during its February 2025 funding discussions. The key uncertainty involves how each company's valuation changes through 2026—whether through new funding rounds, acquisition activity, or strategic events. No single scheduled resolution event exists; instead, resolution depends on public announcements or documented valuation data from either company during the year. Market participants are pricing in a high probability that at least one company will announce a new valuation that crosses this threshold.

Key factors:
- Anthropic's December 2024 valuation of $60 billion versus OpenAI's last documented valuation and any new funding announcements either company makes in 2026
- The timing and terms of potential new funding rounds for either company, which would establish official new valuations
- Public statements or third-party valuations from industry analysts, investment banks, or acquisition discussions involving either company
- Changes in AI market dynamics, deployment adoption rates, or revenue performance that could influence investor valuations of both companies
- Whether OpenAI pursues a public listing or other corporate event that would establish a market-determined valuation in 2026

Contracts:
- Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? — 90¢ Polymarket $22 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T19:20:12.618Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/anthropic-valued-higher-than-openai
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Anthropic%20valued%20higher%20than%20OpenAI%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev