22% — Will Centerview take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028
Kalshi 22% · 15 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-30 17:30:35 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Centerview Partners will serve as lead advisor for an Anthropic IPO within 18 months. Market participants are pricing in a 31% chance of this specific outcome, though related contracts show varying probabilities for other investment banks in the same role. The main drivers are Anthropic's current funding status, profitability trajectory, and stated timeline for going public—the company has indicated interest in an eventual IPO but has not announced specific timing. Key factors include whether Anthropic reaches profitability, regulatory clarity around AI companies, broader market conditions for tech IPOs, and Centerview's competitive position relative to other major investment banks already priced higher on similar contracts. The resolution depends on an official IPO announcement naming Centerview as lead advisor before January 1, 2028.

Key factors:
- Anthropic's current private valuation and cash position relative to IPO readiness timeline
- Centerview's historical success winning AI/tech advisory mandates compared to competing banks
- Regulatory developments affecting AI company public market eligibility and disclosure requirements
- Broader IPO market conditions and tech sector investor appetite between now and end of 2027
- Whether Anthropic announces IPO plans publicly and identifies lead financial advisors

Contracts:
- Will Allen & Company take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?: Allen & Company — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Centerview take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?: Centerview — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Evercore take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?: Evercore — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Greenhill & Co take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?: Greenhill & Co — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Lazard take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?: Lazard — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Moelis & Company take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?: Moelis & Company — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Mizuho take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?: Mizuho — 58¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Piper Sandler take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?: Piper Sandler — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-30T17:20:51.773Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/anthropicbankpublic
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Centerview%20take%20Anthropic%20public%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202028
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev