97% — 2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?: 4th or lower
Polymarket 97% · 1 contracts · $135 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 05:23:02 UTC

Why this matters:
This market asks whether the first three days of April 2026 will rank as the 4th hottest on record or lower, rather than among the top three. The current 43% probability reflects a significant disagreement between trading venues—Kalshi traders assign 60% odds while Polymarket traders assess only 32%, a 28-percentage-point gap suggesting genuine uncertainty about how April's temperatures will compare to historical records. The outcome depends on both actual temperatures during April 1-3 and the methodology used to calculate historical rankings. Resolution will occur when official temperature data from meteorological agencies becomes available, likely in early May 2026. The divergence between venues may reflect different interpretations of climate trends, seasonal weather patterns, or confidence in data sources used for historical comparisons.

Key factors:
- Global temperature anomalies in late March 2026 will establish the baseline context for early April conditions
- Kalshi's 28-point probability premium suggests venue participants expect either warmer-than-baseline April temperatures or stricter ranking methodologies
- Official ranking methodology (which dataset, which geographic scope, which averaging method) will be determinative for resolution
- Historical April 1-3 temperature records vary significantly across data sources, creating ambiguity in what constitutes 'top 3 hottest'
- No major weather pattern reversal or climate event scheduled between now and April 1-3 is known to alter seasonal expectations

Contracts:
- 2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?: 3rd hottest — 97¢ Polymarket $135 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-12T12:50:10.869Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/april-1st-2nd-3rd-hottest-record
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2026%20April%201st%2C%202nd%2C%203rd%20hottest%20on%20record%3F%3A%204th%20or%20lower
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev