49% — Will the President's approval rating be between 41.1 and 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics
Leader: 39.9 to 40.1 at 49% · Kalshi 49% · 6 contracts · $15K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-28 22:15:36 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract estimates a 24% chance that the President's approval rating will settle between 41.1 and 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics. The market currently favors approval ratings in the 39.6 to 39.8 range (24% probability), with a clustering of outcomes between 39.0 and 40.4. The 41.1-41.3 outcome sits above the most probable range, suggesting traders assign relatively low odds to a meaningful approval increase from current levels. Approval ratings typically respond to economic data releases, policy announcements, and major news events. The resolution will depend on RealClearPolitics' aggregated polling methodology and the timing of new surveys. Contract pricing reflects uncertainty about near-term approval trajectory, with total trading volume concentrated in the 39-40 band.

Key factors:
- Current market consensus clusters approval outcomes between 39.0-40.4, placing 41.1-41.3 in the upper tail of expected outcomes
- The 41.1-41.3 contract is priced at 24%, comparable to the 39.3-39.5 band (22%), suggesting moderate tail-risk valuation rather than outlier status
- RealClearPolitics approval aggregate is updated regularly as new surveys release; resolution depends on polling frequency and timing of the measurement window
- Approval movements of 1+ points typically require significant economic or political shocks; incremental policy effects rarely produce sustained 0.2-point band shifts
- Volume concentration in 39-40 ranges ($2.3M across top three contracts) versus lower volume in higher approval bands suggests limited conviction in approval gains

Contracts:
- Will the President's approval rating be between 39.9 and 40.1 according to RealClearPolitics?: 39.9 to 40.1 — 49¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 37%)
- Will the President's approval rating be between 40.2 and 40.4 according to RealClearPolitics?: 40.2 to 40.4 — 30¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 21%)
- Will the President's approval rating be between 39.6 and 39.8 according to RealClearPolitics?: 39.6 to 39.8 — 5¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 13%)
- Will the President's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.7 according to RealClearPolitics?: 40.5 to 40.7 — 5¢ Kalshi $795 (weight 5%)
- Will the President's approval rating be below 39.0 according to RealClearPolitics?: Below 39.0 — 3¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 21%)
- Will the President's approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.2 according to RealClearPolitics?: 39.0 to 39.2 — 3¢ Kalshi $378 (weight 3%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-11T19:20:50.876Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "49% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/aprpotus
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20President's%20approval%20rating%20be%20between%2041.1%20and%2041.3%20according%20to%20RealClearPolitics
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev