15% — Will Labour win the 2026 Arbroath & Broughty Ferry by-election
Kalshi 15% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-21 10:35:15 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Labour will win the Arbroath & Broughty Ferry by-election scheduled for 2026. The 32% assessment sits between the SNP's dominant position at 84% and the Conservatives' minimal 3% chance, suggesting Labour is viewed as a distant second contender in what remains an SNP-favored seat. The probability would shift based on demographic changes, campaigning effectiveness, and whether Labour can consolidate anti-SNP votes in a historically competitive region. The by-election itself—triggered by an incumbent departure or vacancy—represents the key moment when actual voting patterns will clarify whether market expectations align with voter behavior. Until the contest occurs, the probability reflects current polling, constituency composition, and historical voting trends rather than confirmed outcomes.

Key factors:
- SNP currently holds 84% implied probability, suggesting this is treated as SNP's seat to lose under baseline conditions
- Labour's 32% probability positions it as the main challenger, well ahead of Conservative 3%, indicating vote-splitting dynamics favor SNP retention
- Historical voting in Arbroath & Broughty Ferry and recent Scottish electoral trends will determine whether SNP's structural advantage persists
- Campaign events, candidate quality, and local issues emerging between now and election day could shift vote distributions materially
- By-election timing and turnout composition—particularly whether it attracts core SNP voters or energizes Labour supporters—will be the primary outcome determinant

Contracts:
- Will Labour win the 2026 Arbroath & Broughty Ferry by-election?: Labour — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-20T01:20:20.392Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/arbroathby
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Labour%20win%20the%202026%20Arbroath%20%26%20Broughty%20Ferry%20by-election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev