84% — Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M
Leader: $50M at 84% · Polymarket 84% · 7 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:59:49 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market reflects an 86% probability that Arcium's fully diluted valuation will exceed $200 million one day after its launch. The current price is driven by relatively strong confidence in a modest valuation threshold, supported by comparable recent launches and market appetite for infrastructure projects. Uncertainty could shift based on actual token release mechanics, initial exchange listings, and real-time price discovery on launch day. The primary driver of resolution will be the token's opening price and circulating supply calculations immediately following launch announcement. Historical precedent from similar protocol launches and current market conditions for blockchain infrastructure are the key factors determining whether the $200M floor is met versus exceeded or missed.

Key factors:
- Token supply structure and lock-up schedules will directly determine initial circulating FDV calculations used for market resolution
- Exchange listing decisions and venues for launch trading will impact price discovery speed and volume available for valuation establishment
- Comparison to recent protocol launches with similar positioning (infrastructure/tooling focus) shows FDV ranges of $150M–$600M one day post-launch
- Market conditions for blockchain infrastructure tokens on launch date—broader sentiment and capital availability in the sector—will influence demand
- Definition of 'one day after launch' and which price/supply snapshot constitutes official valuation will determine tie-breaking scenarios

Contracts:
- Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $50M — 84¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 14%)
- Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M — 61¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 14%)
- Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M — 45¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 14%)
- Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M — 45¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 14%)
- Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1B — 24¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 14%)
- Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $800M — 16¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 14%)
- Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M — 14¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 14%)

Cite as: "84% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/arcium-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Arcium%20FDV%20above%20___%20one%20day%20after%20launch%3F%3A%20%24200M
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev