46% — Argentina Presidential Election Winner
Leader: Javier Milei at 46% · Polymarket 46% · 5 contracts · $926 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:42:31 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Argentina Presidential Election Winner: Javier Milei — 46¢ Polymarket $623 (weight 67%)
- Argentina Presidential Election Winner: Axel Kicillof — 40¢ Polymarket $30 (weight 3%)
- Argentina Presidential Election Winner: Mauricio Macri — 5¢ Polymarket $213 (weight 23%)
- Argentina Presidential Election Winner: Dante Gebel — 5¢ Polymarket $30 (weight 3%)
- Argentina Presidential Election Winner: Sergio Massa — 3¢ Polymarket $30 (weight 3%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.261Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "46% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/argentina-presidential-election-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Argentina%20Presidential%20Election%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev