38% — Who will win the next Argentine presidential election
Kalshi 38% · 2 contracts · $557 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-09-23 00:59:07 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations for the next Argentine presidential election outcome. The 49% probability for this category of candidates suggests meaningful uncertainty about who will prevail in the next electoral cycle. Argentine presidential elections are shaped by economic conditions, inflation rates, and voter sentiment toward incumbent policies. The current 41-cent price for Kicillof contrasts with the 57-cent price for Milei, indicating market participants assess different candidates with varying likelihoods. Key drivers of movement include economic data releases, polling changes, and political developments. The specific timing of the next Argentine presidential election will be the primary catalyst resolving these contracts, as it determines actual outcomes against current price expectations.

Key factors:
- Current inflation and economic growth rates in Argentina relative to voter expectations and historical performance under different administrations
- Polling data showing relative support levels for major candidates, particularly comparing center-left and libertarian-aligned candidates
- Approval ratings and satisfaction metrics for the sitting president and government, which historically correlate with electoral outcomes
- Scheduled date of the next presidential election and any constitutional or political events that could affect candidate eligibility or timing
- Voter turnout patterns and demographic shifts that could affect which candidate's coalition performs better in head-to-head matchups

Contracts:
- Who will win the next Argentine presidential election?: Javier Milei — 47¢ Kalshi $556 (weight 100%)
- Will Axel Kicillof win the next Argentine presidential election?: Axel Kicillof — 29¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-23T00:20:51.294Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/argentinapres
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%20next%20Argentine%20presidential%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev