11% — Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before Jan 2027 Kalshi 11% · 19 contracts · $925 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 04:13:50 UTC Why this matters: This contract measures the likelihood that Brandon Johnson, the Mayor of Chicago, will be arrested before January 2027. The 16% probability reflects a combination of ongoing political scrutiny and legal proceedings. The main factors driving this level include current federal investigations and prosecutorial priorities, weighted against the absence of formal charges to date. Any significant developments in ongoing cases or new investigations could shift the probability substantially. The most concrete upcoming milestone would be any announced indictments or major legal filings, which typically receive immediate market reaction. Political dynamics and enforcement priorities at both state and federal levels remain key variables affecting the resolution of this contract. Key factors: - No formal criminal charges against Brandon Johnson have been filed as of May 2026, placing an arrest before January 2027 approximately 8 months away - Federal investigations and prosecutorial activities in Chicago politics have historically moved at varying speeds, with some cases resolved in under a year while others extend years beyond indictment - The current probability of 16% sits substantially lower than Letitia James (65%) and John Brennan (56%), suggesting market participants assess Johnson's legal exposure as materially lower than certain other political figures - Media reporting on active investigations or legal developments would be the primary catalyst for significant probability shifts in either direction - Prior arrests or indictments in Illinois politics serve as reference points for how quickly prosecutorial action can move from investigation to formal charges Contracts: - Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before Jan 2027?: Anthony Fauci — 16¢ Kalshi $376 (weight 41%) - Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before Jan 2027?: José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero — 21¢ Kalshi $317 (weight 34%) - Will John Brennan be arrested before Jan 2027?: John Brennan — 43¢ Kalshi $119 (weight 13%) - Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before Jan 2027?: Hillary Clinton — 7¢ Kalshi $61 (weight 7%) - Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before Jan 2027?: Gavin Newsom — 11¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 2%) - Will Barack Obama be arrested before Jan 2027?: Barack Obama — 7¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 1%) - Will Mahmoud Khalil be arrested before Jan 2027?: Mahmoud Khalil — 18¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 1%) - Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before Jan 2027?: Loretta Lynch — 9¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 1%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T03:20:50.423Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/arrest Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Brandon%20Johnson%20be%20arrested%20before%20Jan%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev