96% — Will the lot sold price of the La Séance du matin by Henri Matisse on Sotheby's be above $20000000 during the live auction beginning May 19, 07:00 PM EDT?: Above $20M Leader: Above $2.75M at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 20 contracts · $695 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 21:13:03 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes. Why this matters: The probability reflects market confidence that Matisse's 'La Séance du matin' will sell for at least $20 million at the May 19 Sotheby's auction. Current trading at 77% suggests strong but not overwhelming conviction. The high probability is anchored by comparable Matisse works' recent performance and pre-auction estimates, though actual hammer prices depend on bidder competition in the room. The May 19 auction itself, beginning at 7:00 PM EDT, will definitively resolve the outcome. Related Van Gogh contract pricing at 95% indicates different expectations for competing lots in the same sale. Key factors: - Pre-auction Sotheby's estimate range and reserve price for the lot, if publicly disclosed - Historical sales prices for Henri Matisse works from similar periods and size at major auction houses in the past 24 months - Liquidity and bid volume on auction eve, reflected in whether estimate-driven price guidance is maintained or revised - Presence and catalog positioning of competing major impressionist works in the same sale that might draw buyer capital - Currency and market conditions on May 19 that could affect international bidder participation Contracts: - Will the lot sold price of the Woman in a Grey Sweater by Lucian Freud on Sotheby's be above $2750000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $2.75M — 96¢ Kalshi $36 (weight 5%) - Will the lot sold price of the Woman in a Grey Sweater by Lucian Freud on Sotheby's be above $2500000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $2.5M — 95¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 1%) - Will the lot sold price of the Bildnis Gertrud Loew (Gertha Felsőványi) (Portrait of Gertrud Loew (Gertha Felsőványi)) by Gustav Klimt on Sotheby's be above $24000000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $24M — 94¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 1%) - Will the lot sold price of the Lydia (Étude pour Portrait au manteau bleu) by Henri Matisse on Sotheby's be above $1250000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $1.25M — 94¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 1%) - Will the lot sold price of the Danaë by Egon Schiele on Sotheby's be above $14000000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $14M — 93¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 2%) - Will the lot sold price of the Lydia (Étude pour Portrait au manteau bleu) by Henri Matisse on Sotheby's be above $1500000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $1.5M — 92¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 3%) - Will the lot sold price of the Bildnis Gertrud Loew (Gertha Felsőványi) (Portrait of Gertrud Loew (Gertha Felsőványi)) by Gustav Klimt on Sotheby's be above $26000000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $26M — 91¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 1%) - Will the lot sold price of the Woman in a Grey Sweater by Lucian Freud on Sotheby's be above $3000000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT?: Above $3M — 90¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:08.468Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/art Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20lot%20sold%20price%20of%20the%20La%20S%C3%A9ance%20du%20matin%20by%20Henri%20Matisse%20on%20Sotheby's%20be%20above%20%2420000000%20during%20the%20live%20auction%20beginning%20May%2019%2C%2007%3A00%20PM%20EDT%3F%3A%20%0AAbove%0A%2420M Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev