10% — Will the lot sold price of the La Séance du matin by Henri Matisse on Sotheby's be above $20000000 during the live auction beginning May 19, 07:00 PM EDT?: 
Above
$20M
Leader: Above $500K at 10% · Kalshi 10% · 8 contracts · $157 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-27 02:11:46 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The probability reflects market confidence that Matisse's 'La Séance du matin' will sell for at least $20 million at the May 19 Sotheby's auction. Current trading at 77% suggests strong but not overwhelming conviction. The high probability is anchored by comparable Matisse works' recent performance and pre-auction estimates, though actual hammer prices depend on bidder competition in the room. The May 19 auction itself, beginning at 7:00 PM EDT, will definitively resolve the outcome. Related Van Gogh contract pricing at 95% indicates different expectations for competing lots in the same sale.

Key factors:
- Pre-auction Sotheby's estimate range and reserve price for the lot, if publicly disclosed
- Historical sales prices for Henri Matisse works from similar periods and size at major auction houses in the past 24 months
- Liquidity and bid volume on auction eve, reflected in whether estimate-driven price guidance is maintained or revised
- Presence and catalog positioning of competing major impressionist works in the same sale that might draw buyer capital
- Currency and market conditions on May 19 that could affect international bidder participation

Contracts:
- Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $500000 during the live auction beginning before 2027?: Above $500K — 10¢ Kalshi $157 (weight 100%)
- Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $1500000 during the live auction beginning before 2027?: Above $1.5M — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $2000000 during the live auction beginning before 2027?: Above $2M — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $4000000 during the live auction beginning before 2027?: Above $4M — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $4500000 during the live auction beginning before 2027?: Above $4.5M — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $2500000 during the live auction beginning before 2027?: Above $2.5M — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $3000000 during the live auction beginning before 2027?: Above $3M — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $3500000 during the live auction beginning before 2027?: Above $3.5M — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-27T00:20:49.114Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/art
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20lot%20sold%20price%20of%20the%20La%20S%C3%A9ance%20du%20matin%20by%20Henri%20Matisse%20on%20Sotheby's%20be%20above%20%2420000000%20during%20the%20live%20auction%20beginning%20May%2019%2C%2007%3A00%20PM%20EDT%3F%3A%20%0AAbove%0A%2420M
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev