77% — Will RÜFÜS DU SOL have 100000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026
Kalshi 77% · 18 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 06:48:53 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether the electronic music group RÜFÜS DU SOL will accumulate at least 100 million streams on Luminate (formerly MRC Data) during 2026. The 90% probability reflects market confidence that an established electronic act will reach this threshold across the full calendar year. The probability is supported by comparable contracts on other artists—Black Coffee is priced at 96% for 130 million streams, and PAWSA at 92% for 210 million—suggesting 100 million is a relatively modest benchmark for a touring act with an existing fanbase. The main uncertainty revolves around release activity: whether RÜFÜS DU SOL will release new material or conduct significant touring during 2026, and how competitive the streaming landscape remains for electronic music. Streaming volume will accumulate until December 31, 2026, when the total is definitively recorded, making year-end Luminate data the final resolution point.

Key factors:
- RÜFÜS DU SOL's release schedule in 2026—new albums or EPs would substantially increase streaming velocity compared to catalog-only streams
- Historical streaming baseline—their 2025 annual total provides a floor estimate; 100M requires roughly 8.3M monthly average
- Touring activity and playlist placement—major tour promotion and DSP playlisting (particularly on electronic/dance-focused playlists) drive consumption spikes
- Competitive streaming share—growth in the electronic music category and new artist releases may fragment listener attention away from established acts
- Luminate data methodology changes—any shifts in how streams are counted or attributed could affect whether the 100M threshold is met

Contracts:
- Will RÜFÜS DU SOL have 1100000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?: Above 1.1B — 94¢ Kalshi $317 (weight 14%)
- Will it's murph have 175000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?: Above 175M — 47¢ Kalshi $266 (weight 12%)
- Will Olivia Dean have 11250000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?: Above 11.25B — 25¢ Kalshi $255 (weight 12%)
- Will Carlita have 50000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?: Above 50M — 62¢ Kalshi $250 (weight 11%)
- Will 2Pac have 3200000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?: Above 3.2B — 97¢ Kalshi $243 (weight 11%)
- Will Hamdi have 45000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?: Above 45M — 35¢ Kalshi $214 (weight 10%)
- Will Black Coffee have 140000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?: Above 140M — 97¢ Kalshi $172 (weight 8%)
- Will it's murph have 150000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?: Above 150M — 90¢ Kalshi $113 (weight 5%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:51.895Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "77% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/artiststreamsy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20R%C3%9CF%C3%9CS%20DU%20SOL%20have%20100000000%20Streams%20on%20Luminate%20during%20January%2001%20-%20December%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev