23% — Assam Legislative Assembly Election Winner: BJP
Polymarket 23% · 7 contracts · $49K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 17:03:22 UTC

Why this matters:
This 32% probability reflects market expectations that India's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win the most seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election. The current estimate suggests traders view the BJP as a competitive but uncertain contender in the state. Assam's political dynamics involve multiple regional and national factors. The BJP's performance would likely depend on factors including voter turnout patterns, coalition dynamics with regional parties, and sentiment shifts on economic or governance issues in the state. The primary resolution point for this market would be the official election results once Assam holds its next assembly election. Until voting occurs and results are certified, this probability remains subject to revision based on polling data, political developments, or changes in voter sentiment reported through media coverage of the state's political situation.

Key factors:
- Historical voting patterns in Assam show competitive multi-party contests with regional parties consistently performing strongly alongside national parties
- Current composition of the Assam Legislative Assembly and recent electoral performance of BJP in the state compared to opposition parties
- Timing of the next scheduled Assam assembly election and whether pre-election polling data becomes available to traders
- Coalition arrangements and alliance strategies involving BJP and regional partners, which significantly impact seat distribution outcomes
- Economic conditions and governance perception in Assam during the period leading up to the election

Contracts:
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: Marco Rubio — 16¢ Polymarket $14K (weight 29%)
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: JD Vance — 17¢ Polymarket $14K (weight 28%)
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: Gavin Newsom — 16¢ Polymarket $9K (weight 19%)
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: Kamala Harris — 5¢ Polymarket $8K (weight 16%)
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: Tucker Carlson — 3¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 7%)
- Maine Senate Election Winner: Democrat — 64¢ Polymarket $503 (weight 1%)
- Maine Senate Election Winner: Republican — 37¢ Polymarket $94 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/assam-legislative-assembly-election-winner-bjp
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Assam%20Legislative%20Assembly%20Election%20Winner%3A%20BJP
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev