41% — Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Red Bull Bragantino
Polymarket 23% · Kalshi 36% · 20 contracts · $1K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 17:38:23 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 13pp (Kalshi higher)

Why this matters:
This market is pricing a 31% chance that Chapecoense defeats Red Bull Bragantino in an upcoming match. The probability reflects moderate uncertainty, with a 5 percentage point gap between Polymarket (35%) and Kalshi (30%), suggesting some disagreement across trader bases. Bragantino is favored as the likely winner at current odds. The main drivers of this probability are each team's recent form, head-to-head history, and squad availability. The match itself will resolve this uncertainty definitively—either Chapecoense wins outright or they don't. Pre-match factors like team news, injuries, or lineup changes could shift the probability in the days leading up to kickoff, while live performance during the match will determine the final outcome. The cross-venue gap suggests traders on Polymarket see slightly elevated value in a Chapecoense victory compared to Kalshi participants.

Key factors:
- Chapecoense's recent league form and current standing relative to Bragantino's position in the Brazilian football table
- Head-to-head record between the two clubs over the past 3-5 meetings, including goals scored and defensive records
- Availability of key players—injuries, suspensions, or absences for either squad in the days before the match
- Home or away status for this fixture and each team's record at their respective venues this season
- Polymarket traders pricing Chapecoense 5 percentage points higher than Kalshi traders, indicating potential disagreement on underlying team strength or recent momentum

Contracts:
- Miami Grand Prix: Top Constructor?: Red Bull Racing — 27¢ Kalshi $378 (weight 14%)
- Will Dplus KIA win the Nongshim Red Force vs. Dplus KIA League of Legends match?: Dplus KIA — 68¢ Kalshi $347 (weight 14%)
- Will Nongshim Red Force win the Nongshim Red Force vs. Dplus KIA League of Legends match?: Nongshim Red Force — 25¢ Kalshi $298 (weight 14%)
- Will Gen.G win the Nongshim Red Force vs. Gen.G League of Legends match?: Gen.G — 85¢ Kalshi $103 (weight 11%)
- Will Nongshim Red Force win the Nongshim Red Force vs. Gen.G League of Legends match?: Nongshim Red Force — 12¢ Kalshi $77 (weight 10%)
- Bragantino at Chapecoense: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored — 47¢ Kalshi $67 (weight 10%)
- Will Dplus KIA win map 1 in the Nongshim Red Force vs. Dplus KIA match?: Dplus KIA — 58¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 6%)
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Kashiwa Reysol — 47¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 2%)
- ... and 12 more

Cite as: "41% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/associao-chapecoense-de-futebol-vs-red-bull-bragantino
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Associa%C3%A7%C3%A3o%20Chapecoense%20de%20Futebol%20vs.%20Red%20Bull%20Bragantino
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev