27% — Atlanta United FC vs. New England Revolution Kalshi 27% · 7 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 05:53:07 UTC Why this matters: This 28% probability reflects market expectations that New England will defeat Atlanta in an upcoming soccer match. The current level sits between two venues, with Kalshi traders pricing New England slightly higher at 30% compared to Polymarket's 23%, suggesting modest disagreement about the matchup. The probability would likely shift based on team form leading up to kickoff, injury reports for key players, and head-to-head records. The most significant near-term catalyst is the publication of official team lineups and any last-minute roster changes, which typically occur 24-48 hours before match time. Current betting volumes are relatively modest across venues, indicating limited conviction among traders or reduced market participation at this moment. Key factors: - Kalshi-Polymarket gap of 7 percentage points suggests meaningful disagreement between venues that could reflect different trader bases or information sets - The 28% probability implies roughly 2.6:1 odds against New England, positioning Atlanta as the favored outcome - 24-hour trading volumes range from low to moderate across contracts, with the championship contract showing the highest activity ($28,812), limiting the sample size for this specific matchup - Recent head-to-head records, current league standings, and goal differential for both teams would mechanically influence this probability - Any announcement of roster unavailability, coaching changes, or tactical shifts in the 48 hours before kickoff could cause rapid repricing Contracts: - Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1?: Mike Vrabel — 92¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 87%) - Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: New England — 4¢ Kalshi $912 (weight 12%) - Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: New England — 7¢ Kalshi $41 (weight 1%) - Will New England win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: New England — 36¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 0%) - Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?: Gavin Newsom — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will New York Y vs Atlanta be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: New York Y vs Atlanta — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T05:20:50.273Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/atlanta-united-fc-vs-new-england-revolution Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Atlanta%20United%20FC%20vs.%20New%20England%20Revolution Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev