27% — Atlanta United FC vs. New England Revolution - More Markets Kalshi 27% · 7 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 07:52:56 UTC Why this matters: This 25% probability reflects market expectations that New England will win the 2027 Pro Football Championship. The assessment is based on aggregated pricing across multiple prediction markets, with a modest 3-percentage-point gap between venues suggesting reasonable consensus. The current level reflects New England's position relative to other NFL contenders entering the 2026 season; upward pressure would come from strong team performance, key player acquisitions, or improved divisional standing, while downward pressure would follow injuries, trades, or competitive setbacks. The main resolution driver is the 2027 Pro Football Championship itself, scheduled for early February 2027, though interim regular-season performance and playoff seeding decisions throughout the 2026 season will continuously inform market repricing. Key factors: - New England's current roster composition and injury status relative to AFC competitors heading into 2026 regular season - Historical win probability for teams with equivalent pre-season metrics and conference positioning - Volume concentration: The highest-volume contract ($13,530 24h) ties to this specific market, while other top contracts reference different sports or matchups, potentially indicating focus or liquidity disparity - Polymarket's 27% average versus Kalshi's 24% spread suggests mild disagreement on valuation; cross-venue arbitrage opportunities or different trader composition may explain the gap - Playoff format structure and conference strength—whether AFC competitiveness increases or decreases relative to NFC teams affects championship path odds Contracts: - Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1?: Mike Vrabel — 93¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 85%) - Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: New England — 4¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 14%) - Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: New England — 7¢ Kalshi $41 (weight 1%) - Will New England win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: New England — 36¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 0%) - Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?: Gavin Newsom — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will New York Y vs Atlanta be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: New York Y vs Atlanta — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.261Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/atlanta-united-fc-vs-new-england-revolution-more-markets Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Atlanta%20United%20FC%20vs.%20New%20England%20Revolution%20-%20More%20Markets Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev