27% — Atlanta United FC vs. New England Revolution - More Markets: O/U 4.5
Kalshi 27% · 7 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 12:28:14 UTC

Why this matters:
This market reflects a 31% probability that an Atlanta United vs. New England Revolution match will produce five or more goals combined. The probability sits at the lower end of typical scoring ranges for MLS matchups, suggesting traders expect a relatively defensive or low-scoring encounter. Current market positioning shows a modest 4-percentage-point gap between venues, with Kalshi slightly more bullish on high scoring. The outcome depends on team form, injury status, and weather conditions closer to match day. Historical scoring patterns for both clubs this season, along with lineup confirmation in the 24 hours before kickoff, will be the primary factors that resolve remaining uncertainty. The match itself will provide the definitive result.

Key factors:
- Atlanta United and New England Revolution's recent scoring trends and defensive records this MLS season will establish baseline expectations for goal output
- Confirmed team lineups and injury reports, particularly status of key attacking players, typically emerge 24-48 hours before the match and directly influence scoring likelihood
- Weather conditions on match day—wind, rain, temperature—can materially affect ball movement and team playing style, shifting probability toward under or over outcomes
- The venue and surface conditions at the match location influence pace of play and shot accuracy
- Historical head-to-head scoring patterns between these specific clubs provide context for atypical results relative to league-wide averages

Contracts:
- Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1?: Mike Vrabel — 92¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 82%)
- Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: New England — 4¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 17%)
- Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: New England — 7¢ Kalshi $41 (weight 1%)
- Will New England win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: New England — 36¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 0%)
- Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?: Gavin Newsom — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will New York Y vs Atlanta be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: New York Y vs Atlanta — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T12:20:51.185Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/atlanta-united-fc-vs-new-england-revolution-more-markets-ou
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Atlanta%20United%20FC%20vs.%20New%20England%20Revolution%20-%20More%20Markets%3A%20O%2FU%204.5
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev