11% — Will Lorenzo Musetti win the ATP Rome
Kalshi 11% · 7 contracts · $357K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-27 13:04:53 UTC

Why this matters:
This 18% probability estimates Lorenzo Musetti's chances of winning the ATP Rome tournament. The market reflects his status as a solid but not elite competitor on clay, where he has shown capability but inconsistent results against top-ranked opponents. The key factors driving this level are Musetti's historical performance at Rome, his current ranking and form relative to other contenders, and the strength of the competing field. The tournament itself will serve as the ultimate data point, with results beginning in the coming weeks and culminating in a champion. Movements in this probability would reflect injury announcements, recent warm-up tournament outcomes, and any shifts in the broader ATP rankings that indicate momentum changes among the field.

Key factors:
- Musetti's historical win-loss record and seeding at Rome over the past three years relative to other Italian players and clay-court specialists
- Current ATP ranking and recent match results in clay-court events leading into Rome
- Injury status or withdrawal announcements by top-seeded players, which would increase draw accessibility for lower-seeded competitors
- Head-to-head records and performance data of Musetti against the top five favorites currently priced in the market
- The tournament draw configuration once announced, including Musetti's projected path to the final based on seeding

Contracts:
- Will Novak Djokovic win the US Open Men's Singles?: Novak Djokovic — 9¢ Kalshi $116K (weight 32%)
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win the US Open Men's Singles?: Carlos Alcaraz — 25¢ Kalshi $96K (weight 27%)
- Will Taylor Fritz win the US Open Men's Singles?: Taylor Fritz — 4¢ Kalshi $57K (weight 16%)
- Will Alexander Zverev win the US Open Men's Singles?: Alexander Zverev — 19¢ Kalshi $26K (weight 7%)
- Will Ben Shelton win the US Open Men's Singles?: Ben Shelton — 7¢ Kalshi $24K (weight 7%)
- Will Arthur Fils win the US Open Men's Singles?: Arthur Fils — 7¢ Kalshi $22K (weight 6%)
- Will Rafael Jodar win the US Open Men's Singles?: Rafael Jodar — 5¢ Kalshi $18K (weight 5%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-27T12:20:52.617Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/atp
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Lorenzo%20Musetti%20win%20the%20ATP%20Rome
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev