48% — Will Alex de Minaur qualify for Semifinals at the 2026 French Open Men Singles tennis tournament
Kalshi 48% · 2 contracts · $4K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 05:22:57 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability estimates a 38% chance that Alex de Minaur reaches the semifinals of the 2026 French Open men's singles tournament. The market reflects de Minaur's ranking and recent clay-court form relative to competitors, with related contracts showing other top-ranked players like Felix Auger-Aliassime priced higher for the same milestone. De Minaur's path depends on draw positioning, injury status heading into the tournament, and performance in lead-up clay events through spring 2026. The tournament itself, scheduled for May-June 2026, will serve as the ultimate resolver of this outcome. Markets currently price his semifinal odds lower than Auger-Aliassime's (49¢), suggesting bookmakers view de Minaur as less favored in the overall draw despite both players typically seeding in similar ranges.

Key factors:
- De Minaur's historical performance on clay courts relative to his hard-court baseline strength and Grand Slam semifinal frequency
- Seeding and draw positioning at the 2026 French Open, which determines quarterfinal and semifinal matchups
- Injury or fitness concerns in the months preceding the tournament, particularly affecting his spring clay-court schedule
- Performance in ATP 1000 clay events and other lead-up tournaments from April-June 2026 as indicators of form
- Strength of the overall men's draw in 2026 and how many top-10 players populate de Minaur's potential path

Contracts:
- Will Flavio Cobolli qualify for Final at the 2026 French Open Men Singles tennis tournament?: Flavio Cobolli — 68¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 78%)
- Will Matteo Arnaldi qualify for Final at the 2026 French Open Men Singles tennis tournament?: Matteo Arnaldi — 28¢ Kalshi $933 (weight 22%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-06T13:20:12.581Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/atpadvance
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Alex%20de%20Minaur%20qualify%20for%20Semifinals%20at%20the%202026%20French%20Open%20Men%20Singles%20tennis%20tournament
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev