27% — Will Brandon Nakashima win at least 5.5 more games than Roberto Bautista Agut
Kalshi 27% · 10 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:20:59 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects whether Brandon Nakashima will win at least 5.5 more matches than Roberto Bautista Agut over a defined period. At 45%, markets assess this as slightly less likely than not, suggesting uncertainty about whether Nakashima's recent form and ranking advantage will translate to a substantial win differential. The probability is primarily driven by the players' current rankings, recent match records, and scheduled tournament appearances. Nakashima, generally ranked higher, would need to maintain or improve performance while Bautista Agut shows relative decline—a multi-tournament outcome rather than a single event. The resolution depends on the specific timeframe and which competitions both players enter, making prediction difficult without knowing exact contract terms.

Key factors:
- Current ATP rankings and recent 52-week win-loss records for both players
- Number and caliber of tournaments each player is scheduled to enter during the resolution period
- Head-to-head historical match record and surface preferences
- Injury status or fitness concerns affecting either player's tournament availability
- Contract resolution date and whether it covers specific events (e.g., Grand Slams only) or all matches in a calendar period

Contracts:
- Will Thiago Agustin Tirante win at least 1.5 more games than Cameron Norrie?: Thiago Agustin Tirante -1.5 games — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will Frances Tiafoe win at least 1.5 more games than Ignacio Buse?: Frances Tiafoe -1.5 games — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will Jannik Sinner win at least 9.5 more games than Sebastian Ofner?: Jannik Sinner -9.5 games — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will Jannik Sinner win at least 6.5 more games than Sebastian Ofner?: Jannik Sinner -6.5 games — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will Jannik Sinner win at least 3.5 more games than Sebastian Ofner?: Jannik Sinner -3.5 games — 73¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will Arthur Fils win at least 8.5 more games than Andrea Pellegrino?: Arthur Fils -8.5 games — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will Joao Fonseca win at least 5.5 more games than Hamad Medjedovic?: Joao Fonseca -5.5 games — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will Joao Fonseca win at least 2.5 more games than Hamad Medjedovic?: Joao Fonseca -2.5 games — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- ... and 2 more

Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/atpgspread
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Brandon%20Nakashima%20win%20at%20least%205.5%20more%20games%20than%20Roberto%20Bautista%20Agut
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev