35% — Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev
Kalshi 35% · 20 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:02 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that a Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev match will extend beyond 14.5 games (roughly meaning more than two sets will be closely contested or go to tiebreaks). The 56% price suggests traders see meaningful probability for a competitive, extended matchup rather than a decisive result. Key drivers include both players' current form, head-to-head history, and the specific surface and tournament context where they meet. The probability would shift based on recent tournament results, injury reports, or fitness levels reported closer to the match date. Market liquidity is concentrated in the Over 14.5 games contract, while minimal trading volume in the extreme-length outcomes (Over 24.5) suggests low conviction about marathon sets.

Key factors:
- Sinner's recent performance trajectory and any injuries or fatigue from prior matches in the tournament
- Medvedev's serve consistency and baseline depth, which historically extend rallies against aggressive opponents
- Head-to-head records on the specific surface and conditions expected for this match
- Tournament round and schedule context—players' fatigue levels differ sharply between early rounds and finals
- Market volume concentration in Over 14.5 games vs. extreme outcomes suggests intermediate-length matches are priced more confidently than blowouts or epics

Contracts:
- Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic: Total Games: Over 37.5 games — 54¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 93%)
- Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Games: Over 37.5 games — 50¢ Kalshi $131 (weight 3%)
- Karen Khachanov vs Jesper De Jong: Total Games: Over 36.5 games — 52¢ Kalshi $94 (weight 2%)
- Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul: Total Games: Over 38.5 games — 46¢ Kalshi $51 (weight 1%)
- Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev: Total Games: Over 35.5 games — 50¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 0%)
- Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik: Total Games: Over 36.5 games — 47¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 0%)
- Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev: Total Games: Over 30.5 games — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev: Total Games: Over 40.5 games — 33¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:10.160Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/atpgtotal
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Jannik%20Sinner%20vs%20Daniil%20Medvedev
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev