95% — Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before January 20, 2027 Leader: Before January 20, 2027 at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 8 contracts · $34 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:04 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects market expectation that Carlos Alcaraz will not return to professional ATP competition within the next seven months. The 30% assessment suggests significant uncertainty about the Spanish player's availability through January 2027, likely driven by an undisclosed injury or medical issue requiring extended recovery time. Markets would reprice upward if Alcaraz announces a return date or participates in warm-up tournaments; prices would fall if official statements confirm prolonged absence or a more serious condition emerges. The key catalyst is any official statement from Alcaraz's team regarding his competitive timeline, which could come at any point but often follows medical clearance procedures in professional tennis. Key factors: - Alcaraz's last known competitive appearance and any official injury announcements from his camp affect baseline expectations for recovery duration - Scheduled ATP tour events and Grand Slam tournaments between now and January 20, 2027 (including US Open, ATP Masters 1000 series, and year-end championships) provide natural decision points for return eligibility - Comparison with historical recovery timelines for similar injuries in elite tennis offers context for how long top-ranked players typically remain sidelined - Volume and pricing consistency across multiple resolution dates (October through January) reveal whether uncertainty is primarily about whether he returns or when he returns - Any appearance in lower-level qualifying events, exhibition matches, or practice tournaments would suggest accelerating readiness before official ATP competition Contracts: - Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before January 20, 2027?: Before January 20, 2027 — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before December 15, 2026?: Before December 15, 2026 — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before November 15, 2026?: Before November 15, 2026 — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before November 1, 2026?: Before November 1, 2026 — 75¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before October 1, 2026?: Before October 1, 2026 — 74¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 59%) - Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before September 1, 2026?: Before September 1, 2026 — 63¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 41%) - Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before August 15, 2026?: Before August 15, 2026 — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before July 18, 2026?: Before July 18, 2026 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.906Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/atpreturn Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Carlos%20Alcaraz%20compete%20in%20an%20ATP%20match%20before%20January%2020%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev