33% — Will Jaume Munar win set 1 in the Jaume Munar vs Alexander Shevchenko match
Kalshi 33% · 6 contracts · $433 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:42:08 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract reflects a 16% probability that Jaume Munar will win the first set against Alexander Shevchenko in their upcoming match. The low probability suggests Shevchenko is favored, likely based on recent form, head-to-head records, or ranking differences between the two players. The main factors driving this assessment are relative player strength, surface conditions if known, and any recent performance data. The match result itself will resolve this contract when it occurs, making the specific match date the primary catalyst for clarity. Factors that could shift the probability include injuries, updated rankings, or new information about either player's conditioning or form leading up to the contest.

Key factors:
- Current ATP/professional rankings and recent tournament results for both Munar and Shevchenko
- Head-to-head historical record between the two players, if applicable
- Surface type of the tournament and each player's documented performance on that surface
- Recent form metrics such as win-loss records in the past 4-6 weeks and set-winning percentages
- Any reported injuries, illness, or conditioning concerns for either player prior to match day

Contracts:
- Will Alexander Zverev win set 1 in the Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev match: Alexander Zverev — 66¢ Kalshi $236 (weight 54%)
- Will Alexander Zverev win set 2 in the Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev match: Alexander Zverev — 65¢ Kalshi $75 (weight 17%)
- Will Flavio Cobolli win set 1 in the Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev match: Flavio Cobolli — 31¢ Kalshi $74 (weight 17%)
- Will Flavio Cobolli win set 2 in the Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev match: Flavio Cobolli — 27¢ Kalshi $29 (weight 7%)
- Will Flavio Cobolli win set 3 in the Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev match: Flavio Cobolli — 3¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 4%)
- Will Alexander Zverev win set 3 in the Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev match: Alexander Zverev — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-07T07:20:11.816Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/atpsetwinner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jaume%20Munar%20win%20set%201%20in%20the%20Jaume%20Munar%20vs%20Alexander%20Shevchenko%20match
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev