47% — Will Tim Cook attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance Kalshi 47% · 11 contracts · $27K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-11 20:02:54 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects market expectations that Apple CEO Tim Cook will participate in at least some portion of Donald Trump's first China visit after the contract was issued. At 58%, the market sees it as slightly more likely than not that Cook will attend, though significant uncertainty remains. The probability is likely driven by Cook's history of diplomatic engagement with Chinese leadership, Apple's substantial operations and revenue dependence on China, and his established relationship with Trump administration officials. However, it's tempered by the unpredictability of diplomatic schedules and Cook's competing commitments as a public company CEO. The resolution will depend on Trump's actual China visit timing and whether Cook is formally invited or voluntarily attends any accompanying business delegation or official events. Key upcoming factors include announcements of the China visit date, any public statements from Apple or the administration about Cook's participation, and broader US-China trade or diplomatic developments. Key factors: - Apple generated approximately 20% of revenue from China in recent fiscal years, creating strong incentive for CEO attendance at high-level diplomatic visits - Tim Cook has historically participated in major diplomatic and trade-related events involving China and maintained relationships with multiple administrations - Trump's China visit date and specific attendee list remain unannounced, making the probability contingent on future scheduling decisions - Cook's public schedule and competing Apple obligations (earnings calls, shareholder meetings, product announcements) may conflict with China visit timing - Market is pricing Cook's attendance notably higher than other tech/business leaders like Elon Musk (23¢) but lower than government officials like Marco Rubio (89¢) Contracts: - Will Elon Musk attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance?: Elon Musk — 89¢ Kalshi $14K (weight 52%) - Will Jensen Huang attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance?: Jensen Huang — 6¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 21%) - Will Larry Fink attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance?: Larry Fink — 92¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 16%) - Will Tim Cook attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance?: Tim Cook — 89¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 4%) - Will Sam Altman attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance?: Sam Altman — 10¢ Kalshi $929 (weight 3%) - Will Jamie Dimon attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance?: Jamie Dimon — 5¢ Kalshi $364 (weight 1%) - Will Howard Lutnick attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance?: Howard Lutnick — 18¢ Kalshi $167 (weight 1%) - Will Darren Woods attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance?: Darren Woods — 19¢ Kalshi $97 (weight 0%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-11T19:50:39.691Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "47% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/attendtrumpchina Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Tim%20Cook%20attend%20any%20part%20of%20Donald%20Trump%E2%80%99s%20first%20visit%20to%20China%20after%20Issuance Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev