9% — Will Jean-Michel Basquiat break his auction record this season?: Above $110.5M Kalshi 9% · 5 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 21:13:03 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 10% probability that a Jean-Michel Basquiat painting will sell for more than $110.5 million at auction within this season. The current record for a Basquiat work is $110.5 million, set in 2017. The low probability reflects the rarity of paintings reaching or exceeding this threshold, combined with limited availability of top-tier works entering the market in any given season. Comparable artists show similarly low probabilities for breaking their records, suggesting high thresholds are inherently difficult to exceed. Resolution depends on whether major auction houses schedule significant Basquiat works and whether collectors compete to push prices beyond the established record. The primary catalyst is the frequency and quality of Basquiat lots offered at major auctions through the end of the current season. Key factors: - Basquiat's record of $110.5M has stood since 2017, representing nine years without a breakthrough sale at this price level - Only a handful of Basquiat works have ever sold above $50M, limiting the pool of paintings capable of setting records - Market conditions, collector appetite, and competition between bidders fluctuate seasonally, directly affecting whether reserve prices are met and bids escalate - The specific Basquiat works offered at Sotheby's and Christie's this season determine feasibility—catalogued pieces must be authenticated masterpieces with sufficient provenance - Comparable artists (Monet at 3%, Picasso at 9%, Warhol at 11%) show record-breaking is uncommon even among the most valuable painters, establishing baseline rarity Contracts: - Will Jean-Michel Basquiat break his auction record this season?: Above $110.5M — 9¢ Kalshi $611 (weight 54%) - Will Vincent van Gogh break their auction record this season?: Above $117,180,000 — 11¢ Kalshi $243 (weight 22%) - Will Claude Monet break their auction record this season?: Above $110,747,000 — 6¢ Kalshi $228 (weight 20%) - Will Pablo Picasso break his auction record this season?: Above $179,365,000 — 9¢ Kalshi $47 (weight 4%) - Will Andy Warhol break his auction record this season?: Above $195,040,000 — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:11.134Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/auctionrecord Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jean-Michel%20Basquiat%20break%20his%20auction%20record%20this%20season%3F%3A%20%0AAbove%0A%24110.5M Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev