32% — Audax CS Italiano vs. CR Vasco da Gama
Polymarket 34% · 3 contracts · $5 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 16:52:01 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the aggregated expectation that Audax CS Italiano will defeat CR Vasco da Gama in an upcoming match. The 30% baseline is supported primarily by Kalshi contracts showing modest confidence in Audax, though limited trading volume ($10 in 24h) across Polymarket suggests thin liquidity and potentially unstable pricing. The 5-percentage-point gap between venues (Polymarket at 34%, Kalshi at 29%) indicates some disagreement on Audax's chances. Resolution depends on the scheduled match outcome, which would eliminate all uncertainty immediately. Current pricing may reflect recent form, head-to-head records, or home-field advantage, though the sparse contract activity suggests most traders are focused on the higher-profile Flamengo vs. Vasco da Gama matchups visible in the contract list rather than this fixture.

Key factors:
- Audax CS Italiano's recent league position and win-loss record in the current season compared to Vasco da Gama's
- Home-field advantage status: whether Audax plays at home or away, and historical performance in that configuration
- Head-to-head historical results between the two clubs in their most recent 5-10 competitive meetings
- Low 24-hour trading volume ($10) on the primary Audax vs. Vasco contract, indicating limited market conviction or information flow
- Injury or suspension status of key players on either roster in the days immediately before the scheduled match

Contracts:
- Audax CS Italiano vs. CR Vasco da Gama: Audax CS Italiano — 30¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 56%)
- Audax CS Italiano vs. CR Vasco da Gama: Draw (Audax CS Italiano vs. CR Vasco da Gama) — 30¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 22%)
- Audax CS Italiano vs. CR Vasco da Gama: CR Vasco da Gama — 41¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 22%)

Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/audax-cs-italiano-vs-cr-vasco-da-gama
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Audax%20CS%20Italiano%20vs.%20CR%20Vasco%20da%20Gama
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev