34% — Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC
Polymarket 37% · Kalshi 32% · 20 contracts · $280K volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 15:05:20 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 5pp (Polymarket higher)

Why this matters:
This 36% probability reflects market expectations that Austin FC will defeat St. Louis City SC in an upcoming match. The substantial 28-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests traders disagree on the likelihood, with Kalshi pricing Austin's victory significantly higher at 62%. Polymarket's lower aggregate of 34% indicates broader skepticism about Austin's prospects, potentially driven by differences in how each market weights team form, home-field advantage, or injury status. The relatively low trading volume on most Austin-St. Louis contracts suggests limited market conviction overall. Resolution will occur when the match concludes and the final result is recorded, with the outcome determined by actual in-game performance rather than underlying team metrics.

Key factors:
- Kalshi prices Austin FC victory at 62% versus Polymarket's 34%, indicating a material difference in fundamental assumptions between venues
- Trading volume is thin across most Austin-St. Louis contracts ($65–$140 per day), suggesting limited participation may amplify price disparities
- The draw probability on Polymarket sits at 27%, which combined with St. Louis City SC's 16% under-1.5-goal spread implies markets expect a low-scoring match
- Home-field advantage, current league standing, head-to-head history, and injury reports would typically explain the direction of the probability
- The match outcome is binary and contractually determined, eliminating ambiguity in settlement once play concludes

Contracts:
- Los Angeles D vs St. Louis Winner?: Los Angeles D — 57¢ Kalshi $186K (weight 10%)
- Los Angeles D vs St. Louis Winner?: St. Louis — 42¢ Kalshi $78K (weight 9%)
- Will St. Louis be the 2026 NL Central Division Winner: St. Louis — 6¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 7%)
- Austin vs Saint Louis Winner?: Austin — 37¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 7%)
- Los Angeles D vs St. Louis First Inning Run?: Yes — 53¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 6%)
- Austin vs Saint Louis Winner?: Tie — 28¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 6%)
- Austin vs Saint Louis Winner?: Saint Louis — 36¢ Kalshi $701 (weight 5%)
- St. Louis wins by over 1.5 runs?: St. Louis wins by over 1.5 runs — 27¢ Kalshi $604 (weight 5%)
- ... and 12 more

Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/austin-fc-vs-st-louis-city-sc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Austin%20FC%20vs.%20St.%20Louis%20City%20SC
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev