81% — Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC
Leader: 75+ wins at 81% · Kalshi 81% · 2 contracts · $274 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:09:59 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 36% probability reflects market expectations that Austin FC will defeat St. Louis City SC in an upcoming match. The substantial 28-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests traders disagree on the likelihood, with Kalshi pricing Austin's victory significantly higher at 62%. Polymarket's lower aggregate of 34% indicates broader skepticism about Austin's prospects, potentially driven by differences in how each market weights team form, home-field advantage, or injury status. The relatively low trading volume on most Austin-St. Louis contracts suggests limited market conviction overall. Resolution will occur when the match concludes and the final result is recorded, with the outcome determined by actual in-game performance rather than underlying team metrics.

Key factors:
- Kalshi prices Austin FC victory at 62% versus Polymarket's 34%, indicating a material difference in fundamental assumptions between venues
- Trading volume is thin across most Austin-St. Louis contracts ($65–$140 per day), suggesting limited participation may amplify price disparities
- The draw probability on Polymarket sits at 27%, which combined with St. Louis City SC's 16% under-1.5-goal spread implies markets expect a low-scoring match
- Home-field advantage, current league standing, head-to-head history, and injury reports would typically explain the direction of the probability
- The match outcome is binary and contractually determined, eliminating ambiguity in settlement once play concludes

Contracts:
- Will St. Louis win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will St. Louis be the 2026 NL Central Division Winner: St. Louis — 4¢ Kalshi $274 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:51.283Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "81% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/austin-fc-vs-st-louis-city-sc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Austin%20FC%20vs.%20St.%20Louis%20City%20SC
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev