86% — Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?: 0-10
Leader: Before Jul 1, 2027 at 86% · Kalshi 86% · 7 contracts · $417K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 07:59:24 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract estimates a 25% probability that the average number of daily ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz will fall between 0-10 by the end of April 2026. The Strait is one of the world's most critical chokepoints for oil and liquefied natural gas, typically seeing 60+ transits daily under normal conditions. The current low probability reflects expectations that traffic will remain near historical norms rather than collapse to single or low double-digits. A sharp reduction would require a major disruption—such as military conflict, sanctions escalation, regional instability, or a coordinated shipping diversion. The IMF PortWatch data will definitively resolve this contract on May 1, when April's final figures are released. Related contracts show market participants assign extremely low odds to even 40+ daily transits, suggesting confidence in continued high-volume traffic through the waterway.

Key factors:
- IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average baseline: typical rates exceed 60 transits daily, making a collapse to 0-10 a tail-risk scenario
- Geopolitical stability in the Persian Gulf region as of late April 2026—any military escalation or sanctions regime change would be the primary catalyst for reduced traffic
- Historical traffic data through April 2025 and early 2026 to establish whether recent trends support or contradict low-traffic expectations
- Correlation with crude oil prices and global LNG demand, since shipping disruptions typically accompany broader energy market shocks
- Calendar date of April 30, 2026: final observed transit counts will be locked in within 48 hours, with IMF release typically occurring May 1

Contracts:
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027 — 86¢ Kalshi $18K (weight 4%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027 — 84¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 0%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 75¢ Kalshi $35K (weight 8%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 63¢ Kalshi $15K (weight 4%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 57¢ Kalshi $25K (weight 6%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026 — 48¢ Kalshi $167K (weight 40%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026 — 17¢ Kalshi $156K (weight 37%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-14T11:20:53.385Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "86% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-april
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Avg.%20%23%20of%20ships%20transiting%20Strait%20of%20Hormuz%20end%20of%20April%3F%3A%200-10
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev