86% — What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration Leader: At least 2000 at 86% · Kalshi 86% · 7 contracts · $42 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-29 03:54:16 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates an 86% probability that measles cases will average at least 2,000 annually during the Trump Administration (2025-2029). Measles outbreaks depend primarily on vaccination rates and disease importation, both of which fluctuate based on public health policy, vaccine confidence, and international travel patterns. The market currently reflects relatively high confidence in sustained elevated case counts compared to recent pre-pandemic baselines. Resolution will depend on CDC surveillance data compiled across the full administration term. Key uncertainties include whether vaccination uptake trends continue declining, whether outbreak clusters occur in vulnerable populations, and how health authorities respond to any major cases or regional transmission events. Key factors: - CDC measles case counts and vaccination coverage rates reported quarterly—lower vaccination rates typically precede case increases - Prevalence of vaccine hesitancy messaging and policy changes affecting routine immunization programs during the administration - International measles importation events and travel patterns, particularly from high-prevalence regions - Occurrence and magnitude of any regional outbreak clusters that could trigger public response or policy shifts - Year-over-year comparison to 2024 baseline (preliminary data shows ~260-600 U.S. cases), with 2,000+ annual average representing substantial increase Contracts: - What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 2000 — 86¢ Kalshi $30 (weight 71%) - What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 2500 — 69¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 3000 — 58¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 3500 — 49¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 2%) - What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 4000 — 42¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 4500 — 36¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 5000 — 30¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 27%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-29T03:20:49.780Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "86% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/avgmeaslesdjt Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20the%20average%20number%20of%20measles%20cases%20be%20during%20the%20Trump%20Administration Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev