81% — AZ-05 House Election Winner
Leader: Republican Party at 81% · Polymarket 81% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 11:08:38 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The AZ-05 House race shows a 54% probability for one candidate, indicating a highly competitive matchup. This reflects a district where recent electoral performance and demographic trends create genuine uncertainty about the outcome. The main factors affecting this probability are candidate quality and campaign effectiveness, along with broader national political sentiment that could shift in either party's favor heading into the general election. The race will likely become more certain as Election Day approaches and final polling data emerges, with campaign spending, candidate debate performance, and late-breaking news potentially moving the probability significantly in either direction.

Key factors:
- District voting history in recent elections (2020, 2022) compared to current candidate positioning
- Relative campaign funding and spending levels between the two major party candidates
- Late polling averages and trend direction in the final weeks before election day
- Voter registration changes and turnout patterns specific to AZ-05's demographic composition
- Performance of top-of-ticket candidates in this district versus their statewide averages

Contracts:
- AZ-05 House Election Winner: Republican Party — 81¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)
- AZ-05 House Election Winner: Democratic Party — 14¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "81% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/az05-house-election-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=AZ-05%20House%20Election%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev