48% — Will Travis Grantham be the Republican nominee for AZ-5
Kalshi 48% · 2 contracts · $3K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:33:25 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects trader expectations that Travis Grantham will win the Republican primary for Arizona's 5th congressional district. The 80% level suggests Grantham is viewed as the clear frontrunner, though not yet certain. Primary outcomes depend on candidate field composition, endorsement patterns, and voter preferences in this particular district. The election in August 2026 will definitively resolve this question. Until then, shifts in this probability would likely track changes in candidate announcements, polling data if released, or endorsement moves by local Republican party figures. Campaign funding and on-the-ground organization differences between candidates could also influence the outcome.

Key factors:
- Whether Mark Lamb or other candidates enter the race, as candidate field size significantly affects primary math
- Public polling results or internal polling leaks showing voter preferences among Republican primary voters in AZ-5
- Endorsements from Arizona Republican establishment figures, particularly the state party chair or current Arizona delegation members
- Campaign finance data showing funding disparities and resource allocation among declared candidates
- Turnout patterns in the Republican primary relative to historical AZ-5 election cycles, as turnout composition can shift primary dynamics

Contracts:
- Will Daniel Keenan be the Republican nominee for AZ-5?: Daniel Keenan — 43¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 71%)
- Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-5?: Mark Lamb — 52¢ Kalshi $741 (weight 29%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:10.623Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/az5r
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Travis%20Grantham%20be%20the%20Republican%20nominee%20for%20AZ-5
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev