54% — Will Maria Flores be the Democratic nominee for AZ-08
Kalshi 54% · 7 contracts · $694 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 02:50:09 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the odds that Maria Flores will win the Democratic primary for Arizona's 8th congressional district. Currently priced at 30%, Flores ranks behind frontrunner Bernadette Greene Placentia (67%) and competitor Raymond Keeler (25%) in market expectations. The probability depends on primary election dynamics, candidate fundraising levels, endorsements from party officials, and recent polling data in the district. The AZ-08 Democratic primary will ultimately resolve this uncertainty when voters cast ballots. Market participants are calibrating these odds based on each candidate's demonstrated organizational strength, name recognition, and ability to mobilize voters in this competitive race.

Key factors:
- Bernadette Greene Placentia holds 67% probability, suggesting markets view her as the clear frontrunner with superior resources or polling
- Raymond Keeler at 25% probability indicates at least two other viable candidates are splitting support
- Combined probability of named candidates (Flores, Greene Placentia, Keeler) totals 122%, suggesting either market overlap or unnamed candidates receiving non-zero probability
- Primary election date and ballot access deadlines will constrain candidate field and clarify viability
- Fundraising totals and recent polling from reputable AZ-08 sources would directly inform whether market pricing reflects current ground conditions

Contracts:
- Will Kai Newkirk be the Democratic nominee for AZ-04?: Kai Newkirk — 17¢ Kalshi $407 (weight 59%)
- Will Greg Stanton be the Democratic nominee for AZ-04?: Greg Stanton — 78¢ Kalshi $222 (weight 32%)
- Will Raymond Keeler be the Democratic nominee for AZ-08?: Raymond Keeler — 13¢ Kalshi $66 (weight 9%)
- Will Zuhdi Jasser be the Republican nominee for AZ-04?: Zuhdi Jasser — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Chris James be the Democratic nominee for AZ-05?: Chris James — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Elizabeth Lee be the Democratic nominee for AZ-05?: Elizabeth Lee — 73¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Bernadette Greene Placentia be the Democratic nominee for AZ-08?: Bernadette Greene Placentia — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T02:20:49.905Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "54% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/azprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Maria%20Flores%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20AZ-08
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev