90% — Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $5.57 on Dec 31
Leader: Above $2.27 at 90% · Kalshi 90% · 20 contracts · $702 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:03 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market assesses the likelihood that Nvidia's B200 GPU will cost above $5.57 per compute hour by year-end 2026. The 90% probability reflects strong trader confidence in price exceeding the $2.27 threshold, with progressively lower odds at higher price tiers ($5.27 at 69%, $6.47 at 42%). Current pricing dynamics depend on GPU supply levels, datacenter demand, and competitive offerings from AMD and other manufacturers. The main resolution driver will be actual B200 pricing announced or published by December 31, 2026. Traders pricing this high suggest they expect either sustained GPU scarcity, strong enterprise demand, or limited competitive pricing pressure through year-end. The gap between the 90% floor price and 42% for the $6.47 threshold indicates uncertainty about whether prices will sustain at premium levels or normalize as supply increases.

Key factors:
- Current B200 market pricing and availability as of mid-2026 will constrain upward movement; prices unlikely to exceed $5.57 if supply normalizes significantly
- Datacenter AI infrastructure spending growth through Q4 2026 directly influences demand elasticity and willingness to pay for premium compute capacity
- Competitive pricing from AMD's MI-series GPUs and other accelerators will create downward pressure if they achieve meaningful market share gains
- The specific metric definition for 'compute per hour price' must match how Nvidia or third-party pricing databases actually report B200 costs by December 31
- Supply chain capacity and manufacturing yields for B200 production determine whether sufficient inventory exists to satisfy demand at current pricing levels

Contracts:
- Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $2.27 by Dec 31?: Above $2.27 — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $3.17 by Dec 31?: Above $3.17 — 89¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 1%)
- Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $2.57 by Dec 31?: Above $2.57 — 88¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 2%)
- Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $2.87 by Dec 31?: Above $2.87 — 88¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 1%)
- Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $3.47 by Dec 31?: Above $3.47 — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $4.07 on Dec 31?: Above $4.07 — 79¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 4%)
- Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $3.77 on Dec 31?: Above $3.77 — 78¢ Kalshi $34 (weight 5%)
- Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $4.37 by Dec 31?: Above $4.37 — 76¢ Kalshi $35 (weight 5%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.255Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/b200max
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20B200%20compute%20per%20hour%20price%20be%20above%20%245.57%20on%20Dec%2031
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev